Climate Letter #681

Another big year of surface melting is in progress for Greenland.  This year could rival or possibly exceed the extreme melting of 2012.

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On the difference between a 2C and 1.5C world, by Fred Pearce.  Fred summarizes a number of recent research reports on this subject, showing that the difference is likely to be significant.  He also shows why stopping at 1.5C is highly unlikely, for many reasons which are discussed.  Geoengineering is still on the wish list, but nothing realistic is in sight.  The essay covers a number of related issues.
Added note:  There is a quote in the essay from a piece written in the same forum last December by David Victor, a scientist who spent five years working on an IPCC panel.  The IPCC has a reputation for the conservative nature of its published conclusions, bypassing many of the more unpleasant submissions.  David says, “That experience convinced me that warming probably can’t be stopped at those levels — the world has dithered for too long and must now brace for the consequences. Even a realistic crash program to cut emissions will blow through 2 degrees; 1.5 degrees is ridiculous.”  Here is his full report:
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/why_paris_worked_a_different_approach_to_climate_diplomacy/2940/
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Why Hillary, unlike Bernie, is not talking about support for a carbon tax.  She is known to be in favor of one, but is apparently afraid of the kind of attack that would elicit from Donald Trump, which is understandable.  Voters. even those who want something done about climate change, have not yet been impressed with the reasons why such a tax is vitally necessary, for lack of enough educational effort.  (There is no better way to cause an immediate decline in CO2 emissions.  The tax should have been started on a small scale twenty years ago.)
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One reason why environmentalists have a low opinion of oil and gas pipelines.  They have a tendency to spring leaks.  Sometimes those leaks occur in sensitive wildlife areas.
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The outlook for sharply reducing the cost of offshore wind energy is favorable.  The Dutch are well-informed on this subject.  Their research foresees a 40% decline over the next ten years, and more to follow.
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A new way to test the impact of climate change on world heritage sites.  I am posting this story mainly because the photograph at the beginning is totally irresistible, as well as thought provoking.  See if you agree.
Carl

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