CO2 report for May, at Mauna Loa. The result of 407.70 ppm was up nearly four parts for the annual peak month. That is almost two parts higher than it would have been without the effects of a super El Nino, virtually all of which are included within the May-to-May twelve-month period. Besides the intensified wildfires, those effects include the outgassing of CO2 from ocean waters that occurs whenever the surfaces of those waters, on average, become warmer. When a given patch of water gets warmer it emits some CO2; when it cools it absorbs, all in the name of keeping a relative balance. The average patch has lately warmed, but with La Nina now in sight it will cool. My prediction for CO2 next May is “only” 409.50, with an intervening September low of 401.75. Part of the surplus emitted in the past twelve months has yet to be recaptured in sinks, but around half is here to stay. As a relief, the next super El Nino is not due until…2030???
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Now, what about temperatures, which were also boosted by El Nino? For that we turn to this fine brief by Roz Pidcock, which focuses on the transition period into the probable coming of La Nina. It’s full of great information, including reasons for expecting a high temperature peak in 2016 followed by a sharp decline in 2017, to possibly below that of 2015. As before, the main, underlying trend is not likely to deviate from “up.”
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For a longer-term perspective, the venerable Andrew Glikson has much to say that is worth your while. It all began when ancestors of homo sapiens mastered the use of fire more than one million years ago. He takes it all the way from there into the future.
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Here is a similar theme, based on an exhaustive new study of how humans have been transforming the entire environment of the planet, starting tens of thousands of years ago. And yes, the pace has picked up lately. Climate warming is an integrated part of the whole, of fundamental importance because of the way energy was supplied to activate and accelerate many of the other exploits.
The full text of the study is available, without charge, at this link:
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A full report on the present and future status of the Great Barrier Reef. From the Guardian, this is reporting at the very highest level, well-illustrated. The people engaged in making all the studies deserve similar praise. One point I would like to add is that, temperature-wise, how tight the margin can be when shifting from normal to total disaster. Awful things happened to the reef in the mere blink of an eye. This is why no one should be complacent about climate change just because things may currently seem normal in their own backyard.
Carl