New thinking about the cause of atmospheric ‘blocks’ is having an influence on future climate predictions (Science). This article shows how the explanation has been evolving for many years, and remains uncertain, but is gaining some elements of clarity. Some key points that are made: “As the world warms, the jet stream is likely to move to higher latitudes, which could lead to even more blocking events….. blocking events are more common and last longer when the jet stream moves to higher latitudes…..the new theories could identify thresholds—specific atmospheric conditions—at which blocks are likely to proliferate…..And Wang has found that shifting the stream 10° closer to the pole could bring a 10-fold increase in blocks—and the heat waves and droughts they foster. Northern Europe would experience many more…..especially Russia.” There is ongoing debate over the role of water vapor in block formation.
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More evidence that a powerful cosmic impact was the cause of the Younger Dryas climate event that began 12,800 years ago (University of California – Santa Barbara). The impact and the profound cooling that followed have no effect on current climate models, but certainly affected the lives of our ancestors for an entire millennium. “This impact contributed to the extinction of most large animals, including mammoths, and American horses and camels; the disappearance of the North American Clovis culture; and to the abrupt onset of the end-glacial Younger Dryas cooling episode.” This interesting story is about archaeological findings that describe the destruction of a settlement in the Middle East as it participated in the wide spread of the occurrence.
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Five charts show how electric power generation in the US has been changing in this century (Inside Climate News). Two of them seem rather surprising—one, that coal generation has fallen by half since 2008; the other, that total demand for electricity has not risen at all since 2007. “The U.S. has gotten much better at conserving energy, using more efficient lighting and appliances, and improving building codes, among many other changes.” Now we need to begin cutting back our dependence on those gas-fired power plants.
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Globally, the shift away from coal for power generation is much too slow (Business Green). “Carbon emissions from the global power sector fell by two per cent in 2019, the biggest fall since at least 1990.” That may sound positive, but here’s the rub: Large declines of 24 per cent in the EU and 16 per cent in the US in 2019 were almost completely offset by gains elsewhere around the world, dominated by China. “Chinese coal generation continues to rise and, in 2019, the country was responsible for 50 per cent of global coal generation.” (This year and beyond will of course depend on how quickly that nation recovers from its coronavirus outbreak—see the following story.)
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The ultimate impact of the coronavirus outbreak on global carbon emissions, which could mitigate climate change, cannot be predicted at this time (Carnegie Mellon University). The main reason has been laid out in a newly-published study. “When scientists try to predict the spread of something across populations — anything from a coronavirus to misinformation — they use complex mathematical models to do so. Typically, they’ll study the first few steps in which the subject spreads, and use that rate to project how far and wide the spread will go. But what happens if a pathogen mutates, or information becomes modified, changing the speed at which it spreads?….These evolutionary changes have a huge impact…..If you don’t consider the potential changes over time, you will be wrong in predicting the number of people that will get sick or the number of people who are exposed to a piece of information.” (That also adds to the complication of producing an effective vaccine.)
Carl