An analysis of shrinking time constraints for meeting the targets set in Paris (Wageningen University – Netherlands). This first link provides the press release that introduces a new report from a top-level group of scientists and its main conclusions. The report itself, which follows, is clearly written and deserves a careful reading. Keep in mind that the Paris targets serve as useful goalposts for budgeting and timing purposes even if the numbers themselves prove to be overly optimistic with respect to delayed impacts that are likely to slowly emerge over many future decades. The authors mainly want to key in on the vital importance of not wasting time, while wasting time is exactly what we keep doing.
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–Here is a link to the full report, which was published by the trusted journal Nature. One quick quote that helps to summarize—“Had serious climate action begun in 2010, the cuts required to meet the emissions levels for 2 °C would have been around 2% per year, on average, up to 2030. Instead, emissions increased. Consequently, the required cuts from 2020 are now more than 7% per year on average for 1.5 °C (close to 3% for 2 °C).”
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The coronavirus has brought on a sharp ‘unmanaged contraction’ of carbon emissions in China (Deutsch-Welle). “China, the world’s biggest greenhouse gas polluter, has no plans to cut its emissions anytime soon. Under its Paris Agreement pledges, Beijing has promised to hit peak emissions by 2030. So for the next decade, they’re only going to go up…..Yet suddenly, this colossal, coal-powered economy has slashed emissions by 25%…..Not because of the climate crisis, but the COVID-19 public health emergency…..Economists are warning of possible recession in Chinese trading partners Germany and Japan, while global growth is predicted to slow and oil demand has fallen faster than at any time since the 2008 financial crash. All this looks like good news for the planet — at least in the short term…..advocates of a managed contraction of economic activity to protect the climate say shocks like the current outbreak illustrate the stark choices before us.” (Or maybe, since we can’t do the job in a manageable way, has nature just stepped in and taken over with an alternative ‘damn the torpedoes’ type of approach?)
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Europe has experienced ‘by far’ its warmest winter on record (EcoWatch). “The average temperature in Europe between December 2019 and February 2020 was 3.4 degrees Celsius warmer than the average temperature between 1981 and 2010.” Moreover, it was 1.4C warmer than the previous record, set in 2015-16, when a major El Nino event was in full force—but none such this year. A number of other global regions, including most of Russia, were also far above average.
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Russia is apparently starting to get serious about climate change—according to The Moscow Times! “The Moscow Times is launching a special series of articles focusing on the effects of climate change in Russia — one of the most pressing issues in the country’s future. This is the first article in the series…..Even skeptics can no longer ignore the effects of climate change in Russia…..In the past year, Russia’s government has finally admitted that climate change is a serious threat to Russia’s future and has drawn up plans for action.” This is a very interesting read. President Putin, like his good friend in the US, does not seem to be convinced, but others around him are now openly calling for useful action. It must mean something?
Carl