Climate Letter #1625

The WMO expects the global warming trend to continue upward over the next three months (World Meteorological Organization).  The key factor behind the forecast is based on studies of all conditions affecting surface water temperatures in the Pacific—“there is a 60% chance of ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions continuing during March-May 2020. The chances for an El Niño or La Niña are 35% and 5% respectively…..El Niño typically has a warming influence on global temperatures, whilst La Niña has the opposite effect.”  Other factors that have been causing temperatures to rise show no signs of declining and thus should contribute to more average gains.  The strong type of La Nina events have been absent now for nearly a decade.  The odds for one to develop in the June-August period did improve to 25%.

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–A chart of the Oceanic Nino Index back to 1950:  https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.png
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Britain has had its wettest February on record (Independent).  “Thanks to storms Ciara, Dennis and Jorge, the country has seen an average of 202.1mm of rainfall over the month, surpassing the previous record of February 1990 when 193.4mm fell, the Met Office said.”  That’s equal to about an 8-inch average for the entire country, which has 90 flood warnings and 215 alerts still in place.
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A new study projects major losses of the world’s sandy beaches in this century (The Guardian).  “In 30 years, erosion will have destroyed 36,097km (22,430 miles) or 13.6% of sandy coastlines identified from satellite images by scientists for the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European commission. They predict the situation will worsen in the second half of the century, washing away a further 95,061km or 25.7% of Earth’s beaches.”  Note that the total loss is about 40%.  Furthermore, these estimates are based on a quite conservative scenario, where “oceans will only have risen by 50cm by 2100.”  Estimated increases of better than one meter are not hard to find elsewhere.
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Bill McKibbin’s new project, The Climate Crisis weekly newsletter (The New Yorker).  No one is better qualified to cover this subject than the nation’s long-time number-one activist, and you can sign up for free to get your own copies.  He includes any number of links to outside sources that back up his points, which are certainly thorough in coverage.
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Why Antarctica’s Thwaites glacier gets so much attention, and what is being done about it (Peter Sinclair).  The first video is brand new, well worth nine minutes of your time.  Drilling that hole was quite an adventure and what they found at the bottom was a big surprise.
Carl

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