A new study has found evidence of puzzling behavior of the tropical rainfall belt known as the ICTZ (Northumbria University – England). The behavior is puzzling because in many ways it is counter-intuitive: “The researchers showed that the ITCZ expands in a cooler climate and contracts or shrinks as temperatures increase…..Our results are consistent with models suggesting ITCZ expansion and weakening during global periods of cold climate, and contraction and intensifying during periods of global warmth.” One result is that drier conditions develop in certain well-populated regions bordering the zone, most notably Central America and quite possibly the African Sahel as well. “What we found was that during past warm intervals, southern Belize was very dry, similar to modern central Mexico. In contrast, cooler intervals, when it should have been dry by the standard old model, were the wettest intervals over the last 2,000 years…..the research suggests that future warming will increase the likelihood and frequency of future droughts…..What seems a logical next step is to test how this expansion-contraction mechanism is linked to other major climate systems, like the Asian-Australian monsoon. There are lots of questions to be answered.” (I believe total rainfall associated with the ICTZ is still likely to increase as the zonal output intensifies, for abnormally high distribution in other regions. Could the southeastern US be one of them?)
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–The full study is available at this link: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/7/eaax3644
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All across the US, winters are warming up faster than summers (NPR). “The colder times of day are warming faster than warmer times of day. And the colder places are warming faster than the warmer places…..that means winters in both Maine and Alaska are around 5 degrees Fahrenheit hotter on average since the early 1900s.” The post has excellent graphics and many interesting details
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Climate change research should put more emphasis on the global food system (Earth Institute – Columbia University). “A paper released today by the journal Nature Food presents a new global food system approach to climate-change research that brings together agricultural production, supply chains and consumption. When these activities are considered together, they represent 21 to 37 percent of total human-caused greenhouse gas emissions…. Food system responses thus could play a major role in both adapting to and mitigating climate change.” The study has many practical recommendations for creating a new system that makes perfectly good sense from every viewpoint.
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The latest appraisal of researchers who study the world’s coral reefs (American Geophysical Union). The researchers were particularly interested in “what areas of the ocean would be suitable for coral restoration efforts over the coming decades…..found most of parts of the ocean where coral reefs exist today won’t be suitable habitats for corals by 2045, and the situation worsened as the simulation extended to 2100…..Honestly, most sites are out…..The few sites that are viable by 2100 included only small portions of Baja California and the Red Sea, which are not ideal locations for coral reefs because of their proximity to rivers…..Rising temperatures and ocean acidification are mostly to blame.” (No mention here of the usual varying climate ‘scenarios.’)
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Good news from Poland: Construction of it’s last new coal plant is not being funded (Ecologist). “Environmental lawyers have hailed “the end for new coal” in Europe as two Polish utilities announce that they will suspend funding to the country’s last planned new coal plant…..due to changing market circumstances triggered by climate policy, and the continued flight of global capital away from coal…..Regulation and market forces have rarely changed so fast.”
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Meanwhile, the situation in Japan is exactly the opposite, regardless of outside pressures (Vox). “Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, is leaning into coal power, a striking move at a time when the climate crisis is accelerating and most of its economic peers are cutting back on the high-polluting energy source…..is still on track to add a total of 22 coal-fired power plants at 17 sites in the next five years. Some 15 of these plants are already under construction…..the move shows that despite this government’s purported concern about the climate, there are more powerful political and economic forces — and players — driving Japan’s energy policy, often against the will of many Japanese citizens.” It’s highly questionable whether there is any kind of real need.
Carl