Climate Letter #548

What it would really take to limit warming to 1.5C.  Mainly, a complete shutdown of fossil fuel usage by 2025-2030, followed by a large-scale CO2 removal program.  If this is unattainable, as one might logically suppose, and all the island nations have to be written off, at least we are learning something real about the cost of any delay when there is so much to be done and so little time.

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How CO2 emissions from permafrost melting affect the carbon budget.  The full budget has to make room for uncontrolled natural emissions as well as those directly caused by humans.  Permafrost stands out as the top contributor, with a future melting process that is quite predictable for size and output.  This post has all the useful numbers, which often tend to be overlooked.
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The effect of climate change on other species.  This post contains a very sharp infographic on what is happening and likely to happen.  It also talks about the cost, which, as usual, is stated in terms of the cost to humanity.  Maybe there is also a cost to the future of life itself, with or without humans, which has a separate kind of meaning that seldom gets recognized.
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The positive outlook for wind power.  An interview with the CEO of the world’s largest manufacturer of wind turbines, with every question being answered in a convincing manner.  This will reinforce one’s dream of a continuing swift and economical transition away from fossil fuels.
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A new forecast shows how the Arctic sea ice decline may slow down for awhile.  This study links the rate of decline to the penetration of residual warm surface waters from the Gulf Stream into the high Arctic region.  The AMOC slowdown that is actually underway in the North Atlantic is reducing that flow, and the effect can now be shown to partially offset those other factors that have been increasing the trend of melting for several decades.
One of those “other factors” has been redefined, involving the unusual nature of Arctic clouds.
Carl

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