El Nino update. The current event is now being viewed as the strongest on record. This post describes some of the outstanding effects so far, with much more yet to come. Moreover, “Timmerman and colleagues have also shown that extreme impacts from El Niño’s will double in frequency this century as a result of climate change.” The La Nina events that follow are also expected to be greatly worsened as well as more frequent.
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A report on the world’s soil losses. The basic problem is that “One third of the world’s arable land has been lost to soil erosion or pollution in the last 40 years.” That, of course, cannot continue. Soil loss is exacerbated by such things as drought, flooding and the damaging effects of highest-intensity wind or rain storms, all of which are amplified by climate change.
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People are already leaving low-lying islands in the Pacific as climate refugees. This post provides some actual data from two such islands, and it is only the beginning.
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How carbon emissions are divided up globally. The differences are certainly extreme, and that goes for past totals as well as the present pace. This type of distribution is true of individual’s emission rates within a country as well as among countries as units. One gets the impression that cutting back substantially at the very high end could do a lot of good without causing unbearable suffering for those who are cut.
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New research on the effectiveness of various climate messages. The result is that arguments employed in favor of the urgent need for climate action are much less effective than the ones made by those who are opposed. The research was handled in a scientific way, with reasonable explanations offered for why such an outcome. “Moreover, the message of doubt had an effect on all subjects regardless of ideology, although it was also strongest in Republicans.” That the US has an unusually strong community of doubters serves to demonstrate the accuracy of this work.
Here is what the last generation of Republican party top leadership thought about the climate change issue, before the contrarian propaganda campaign was ramped up:
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Focus on China. In yesterday’s Climate Letter I suggested that China would be the ideal party to lead the world persuasively toward a quick and massive transition away from fossil fuels. Look at the report that came in today from Fred Pearce, who is on the scene in Paris:
Carl