Climate Letter #523

A closer look at what the INDC pledges in Paris should accomplish.  The main point is that the plus-2.7C by 2100 outcome that has been advertised will not be accomplished unless the pledges are followed up with continuing emission declines at the same rate as those promised through 2030.  With the easiest options already adopted the following actions will take much more effort, while leaving less wiggle room available for knocking the outcome all the way down to the ultimate goal of 2.0C.

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Americans are not actually worried about climate change.  Here are the results of a new poll, with many interesting details. A solid majority accepts the main facts about warming, but does not treat them as a cause for worry, or as a voting issue.  I  would guess that the minority that does worry is heavily weighted with hard-hit Californians.
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Another sign of genuine commitment from China.  This time it is the premier speaking, backing up President Xi.  “For a great many years, we consumed too much energy and resources to achieve our development, and this model has since become unsustainable,” Li said, adding that China must now rely more on developing its human resources.’  Historically speaking, it  would not be unusual for China to make a quick turn and massively pursue a whole new course of national action, which is exactly what is most needed under the present circumstances.
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More reactions to the new Antarctic ice study.  Some of them cover the pitfalls involved in the chosen method of analysis.  Others are more focused on the changes that have been observed and measured since 2008, when the study ended.  It is really unfortunate that the conclusions were presented in a way that can be easily abused by the denier crowd, while so many other studies that present a different picture use methods that are less controversial.
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An important new breakthrough in thermal energy storage.  This method promises high efficiency and low cost, especially well-tailored to meeting whatever needs arise from irregular electricity supply or demand.   It is nearly ready for large-scale testing.
Carl

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