Climate Letter #508

Posted on October 14, 2015 by Carl Campbell
Global temperature trend updated through September.  Although September itself was only the second warmest for that month, the last twelve months were easily the warmest of any such series on record.  The last nine months, by itself, had an average that was warmer yet, with El Nino promising to boost the full 2015 number even higher.

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Here is how Robert Fanney describes in detail what is known about the current El Nino:
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An analysis of the current coral bleaching event.  Coral bleaching is one of the most certain outcomes of an El Nino event,  with a matching degree of severity.  Growing acidification can only add to the effect.
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A new poll shows changes in what Americans believe about climate science.  The level of belief in the science behind climate change has risen by seven percentage points in just six months.  “…. the significant rise in acceptance is particularly notable among Republicans and evangelical Christian groups.”  Damage done by recent weather events is cited along with response to the message of the papal visit.  The US needs to be cooperative with other nations after next year’s elections, and this may be a sign of growing public influence at the most critical levels.
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A number-crunching scientist explains what needs to be done to meet temperature goals.  Kevin Anderson is a hardnose type of person who has been at this study for a good many years.  He believes there will have to be some really serious belt tightening, especially in the modernized societies, with no time to waste.  Emissions cutting cannot simply wait for renewables to do all the work.  Cutting them the hard way is a message no one wants to hear, and he is not very popular as either a speaker or writer.  (I count myself among the few who like this man and fully accept his arguments.)
Here is a link that will take you to a video of a recent lecture given by Dr. Anderson:
One more comment:  We will eventually do what he recommends, maybe 10 years from now or even sooner, after getting a really loud and clear wakeup call directly from nature.
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New studies of the permafrost carbon feedback.  Both CO2 and methane are available for release in large quantities, and could cause up to 0.5 degree C of extra warming.  “Under this scenario, meeting a 2°C limit would be harder than anticipated. The current IPCC targets do not adequately account for this feedback.”
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How to feed a growing population.  This post will guide you to a review of a new book on this subject, along with a simple presentation of some factual matters.  Climate change effects will always be lurking in the background.
Carl

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