Climate Letter #267 October 31, 2014
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Natural variations in CO2 during the last deglaciation. This story is based on data believed to have unprecedented accuracy for that time period, from 20M to 11M years ago. It is mostly about three 200-year episodes during each of which the CO2 level grew by 10 ppm or more. (Click on the chart and you can find them.) Without human help those are very rapid increases, very hard to explain except in terms of peculiarities in the way the ice sheet behaved as it retreated from much of North America, with a great deal of massive flooding, much carbon-heavy permafrost melting, etc. For this letter I want to emphasize another point, that the CO2 level then rose a total of just 90ppm (40%) over the total deglaciation period, while average global temperatures were increasing by a calculated 5C. Now humans have raised CO2 by another 120ppm (also around 40%) in less than 150 years, with the global temperature measuring a gain of just under 1C. Among the differences, with less glaciation involved we now have much less loss of snow-based albedo, much more in the way of reflective sulfate aerosols, less area of permafrost to melt, and insufficient time that’s needed to reach thermal equilibrium. A full 5C temperature increase is not locked in, but our currrent CO2 habit is anything but natural, and pointed the wrong way as the level keeps growing.
Political science. This is a well-written story about the current state of American politics, and everyone should read it. Note that politicians who say they are not scientists are the same ones who used to say that scientists were all wrong, so that is a small first step toward the inevitable ultimate goal of a complete reversal. Meanwhile the American people have mostly become aware that the climate is being screwed up, but still have many more important things in mind that will influence their votes. Still, since questions about it are now being asked of politicians in public, that too is a step toward change.
On the other hand—-It seems there is now such a thing as a “green tea” party, the members of which would rather not be denied the economic benefits of alternative energy sources that have emerged. Their main target is monopolist utilities, but why stop with that? This could get quite interesting.
Carl