Climate Letter #441

Posted on July 10, 2015 by Carl Campbell
El Nino update.  Data assembled here by Robert Fanney points to the increasing likelihood that it will develop into a “monster” in coming months.  Persistent and powerful westerly winds are the key, giving an eastward push to hot water that has been piling up for years in the Western Pacific.  A major event this year would be complicated by the fact that a large “blob” of very warm water has already become stationed in the northeast corner of the Pacific, along with its own impressively strong climate impact.  The interaction that results could have all sorts of surprising effects.  Quite possibly, it might even lead to an effect on public opinion prior to the Paris conference in December.

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Important information about northern hemisphere snow cover.  Coverage in May and June has declined dramatically since 1980, with a number of damaging consequences.  The loss of albedo is a feedback that has an extra, and immediate, effect on regional temperatures.  The warm season lengthens, everything dries out, and you even get more lightning strikes, which accounts for the massive increase in wildfires, etc, etc.
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Expectations for sea level rise, based on historical precedents.  This study compares today’s warm period with three others like it in the distant past.  The result is not a surprise, but gives support to estimates in a conservative range of 20 feet or so for sea level rise, and perhaps much more.  Uncertainties still remain about the speed at which this can happen, where the historical record is less clear.
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The Spanish government is planning to heavily tax solar power.  Doing so serves as a means of saving the public utilities, whose business plan is now obsolete in a land that is perfectly suited for exploiting solar energy.  Similar actions have been and will be undertaken in many other countries by misguided governments.  The climate conference in Paris would do well to ask for pledges from all nations not to deliberately impede activities that promote the transition to renewables, accompanied by some sort of pressure favoring a positive response.
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Speaking of political retrogression, in the US the GOP is not to be outdone.  Some senators are vowing not to honor any international deal to reduce carbon emissions that the current administration will enter into.  The public has the right to assume that statements of this type are now part of the official party platform, which may or may not be actually true.  Someone of a responsible sort should step up and clarify that point, so there can be an open debate about it.
Carl

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