Australia’s heatwave and bushfires are now forcing evacuations as far south as Melbourne (Phys.org). “Conditions worsened on Friday with high winds and temperatures soaring across the country—reaching 47 degrees Celsius (117 Fahrenheit) in Western Australia and topping 40 degrees in every region—including the usually temperate island of Tasmania.” High wind gusts and dry thunderstorms are sparking and spreading the fires.
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News and historical perspectives about wintertime temperatures in Alaska (Forbes). This magazine article is full of interesting information about a state that experiences all sorts of extremes. Last week there were some record daily lows, and more are predicted, while annual averages are setting new all-time highs.
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An imaginary weather and climate forecast for the year 2050, by the global environment editor of The Guardian. A predecessor, Tim Radford, did the same kind of thing in 2004 for the year 2020, with remarkably accurate results, mostly based on pure science. This new version by Jonathan Watts is trickier because of a greater need to factor in a wide range of possibilities for an outcome largely based on human behavior, which is much more volatile and unpredictable than what science alone teaches. He is not exactly optimistic: “The rich have retreated into air-conditioned sanctums behind ever higher walls. The poor – and what is left of other species – is left exposed to the ever harsher elements. Everyone is affected by rising prices, conflict, stress and depression.”
–A link to Tim Radford’s forecast for 2020, published fifteen years ago. Tim is now a regular contributor to the Climate News Network website, where he sticks to making concise explanations of the meaning of the latest climate research.
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A new study sees little chance of a complete AMOC shutdown in the next 1000 years (University of Groningen). A temporary partial shutdown, on the other hand, is given a 15% probability in the next 100 years. The simulations behind these results made use of a methodology heavily dependent on mathematical inputs surrounding multiple uncertainties in the way certain types of conditions constantly change.
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A conversation with eminent biologist Edward O.Wilson (Sierra Club). Wilson is given credit for conceiving the Half Earth concept for preserving the planet’s biodiversity, revealed in a book published in 2016. “Only by committing half of the planet’s surface to nature can we hope to save the immensity of life-forms that compose it. Unless humanity learns a great deal more about global biodiversity and moves quickly to protect it, we will soon lose most of the species composing life on Earth.” His arguments are favorably received in the environmental community, and the implications for climate change mitigation are likewise highly positive should they ever come to be.
Carl