An important new study about how Greenland’s ice cover has melted in the past (Inside Climate News). The study determined how much melting occurred during the four interglacial periods preceding the one we are just emerging from. The previous four all had a little more natural warming than the latest, resulting in significant amounts of melting before the descent into a new ice age began. Today, when we should be cooling down, we are about to expand the warm interval into a new era of warming that goes well beyond the four others. The final amount of melting will depend on how long the warming lasts as well as how high it goes.
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–The full study has open access and is worth a good look. The authors see meaningful impacts coming from Greenland in our current situation well before global temperatures reach the 2C target.
–Extra comment: The four earlier interglacial periods all concluded with CO2 levels not rising above 300 ppm. That was enough to give them about as much warming as we are getting today with CO2 a good bit higher, exceeding 400 parts. That relationship raises a number of questions and a search for best answers, none of which are offered in the study. To me it suggests that sea level rise from Greenland alone will be increasingly dangerous (up to a maximum of 23 feet) over a period of one or two thousand years unless we can somehow bring the CO2 level all the way back down below 300 ppm, perhaps even 280, which is where we were topping out just two hundred years ago.
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A closeup look at the startling developments going on in Alaska (The Seattle Times). Much of the emphasis is on the impacts from permafrost thawing, which is sure to continue expanding. “In Alaska, the permafrost retreat requires a fundamental rethinking of the fate of things built on top of it.” That includes almost everything.
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An update and perspective on the Australian bushfires (The Guardian). One previous year, 1974, had fires covering about the same amount of acreage, but for different reasons and with far less destruction in populated areas.
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Five reasons why the recent climate talks in Madrid failed (Phys.org). This fine review digs right into the meat of the subject. One overarching summary: “Perhaps the most daunting headwind facing UN climate talks is rising nationalism, populism and economic retrenchment—all at the expense of the multilateralism. The stalemate over carbon markets is a symptom of a more general polarisation and lack of cooperation among countries.”
Carl