Climate Letter #1575

Posted on December 17, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Fascinating new research shows how rapidly the West Antarctic ice sheet can collapse (National Geographic).  Just 10-12,000 years ago, when Earth was cooler than today, it shrank to a size much smaller than now, then recovered because of isostatic rebound of the solid crust below.  “At that time, the ice sheet was already in the midst of shrinking from its Ice Age maximum, when it extended 600 miles further out to sea than it does today. And the ocean floor sat at least 1,300 feet lower than it does today—because the weight of the massive ice sheet had pressed down on the Earth’s crust.  As the ice retreated, thinned, and floated, this allowed warm ocean currents to slither in along the deep ocean floor. That melted the ice ever more rapidly, sending the ice sheet into full-blown collapse. It roared right past its present-day boundaries, retreating at least 120 miles further inland than today.”  The evidence for all this is strong, there was a rebound, and the story is still not over.

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New findings show another way for how Greenland’s contribution to sea level rise could accelerate in this century (Eos).  Broad layers of thick ice located beneath the surface could facilitate runoff from the meltwater pools that form every summer and are growing.  “According to model projections, the ice slabs could double the amount of sea level rise from Greenland’s interior in the coming century.”
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California’s coastal waters are acidifying twice as fast as the global average (Los Angeles Times).  The change in ocean carbon chemistry is very harmful to valuable local fisheries, and the overall effects serve as a warning for the rest of the globe to see what the future may bring.  The reasons behind this exceptionally rapid change are linked to several types of natural oscillations, including El Nino, and how they interact.
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Germany has announced a new climate protection package (Deutsche Welle).  The US$60 billion price tag over four years will be financed largely by raising its current small carbon tax to an initial $28 per ton of CO2 emissions, followed by significant increases.  The plan will enable Germany to implement its share of the original goal of the Paris Agreement of 2015, which so far has suffered from bickering and sidetracking by many other wealthy nations.  This action might give some of them a push to do the same or more, possibly even a combination of the entire EU?
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A new report from a group of Earth system scientists shows how nine critical systems—climate change being one of them—interact with one another and create mutual amplification (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research).  A familiar example:  “Burning down tropical forests to expand agricultural lands for instance increases the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The additional greenhouse gases contribute to the global temperature increase, the harm done to the forests becomes harm to climate stability. The temperature increase can in turn further enhance stress on tropical forests, and for agriculture. The resulting amplification of effects is substantial even without taking tipping points into account: Beyond a certain threshold, the Amazon rainforest might show rapid, non-linear change. Yet such a tipping behavior would come on top of the amplification highlighted in the analysis now published.”  All of the nine systems need to be regulated individually and held within safe boundaries, with no exception.
Carl

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