A major new report shows urgent concern over deoxygenation of the world’s oceans (EcoWatch). The report is the work of 67 scientists from 17 countries. The loss of oxygen has two major causes: nutrient pollution and climate change. “While a two percent decrease in overall oxygen levels might not sound like a lot, there are environments where a small change in oxygen can make a huge difference…..the oxygen loss was not evenly distributed. Some waters in the tropics had seen a 40 to 50 percent decrease in oxygen. The number of oxygen-deprived areas has also increased, from 45 before the 1960s to 700 in 2011.” The full story makes a convincing argument in favor of arresting further development of this trend.
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A wildfire near Australia’s largest city is said to be “too big to put out” (Newsweek). Unless the entire region receives a good rain, “Sydney may be blanketed in smoke for weeks—possibly months.” The health issues are great, and many people are needing to evacuate.
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The Congo rainforest is under severe threat from several sources of destruction (Phys.org). This lush rainforest, second only to the Amazon, has a similar vital role in maintaining climate stability of the planet. It lacks proper protection, and losses from a variety of illegal operations have greatly accelerated. “Given the current rate of population growth and our energy needs, our forests may disappear by the year 2100.”
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How things went during the first week of negotiations at the UN conference in Madrid (BBC News). Apparently not too well. “Up to now these discussions have been led by civil servants, but the arrival of ministers will likely clarify if both can be resolved by political horse trading.” Pledges that were made in Paris in 2015, and not well-kept, are badly in need of improvement.
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A leading environmental journalist evaluates the middle ground between climate apocalypse and climate denial (Forbes). His arguments denouncing extreme forms of alarmism are easy to accept, but I think many actual climate scientists have a different attitude about how “wide” the middle ground is when the time comes to communicate their findings to the public. There may be scientists who are more extreme than others, in one direction or the other, but their extremes seldom match the level of those expressed by various journalists, activists, economists, other authors or academics and so on. Reputable scientists must always express their findings, and the inevitable associated uncertainties, with as much clarity as possible. They have a little more freedom in describing the dangers to humanity, if any, or what needs to be done, and most of them simply avoid saying anything controversial. Journalists have a totally different playing field, more easily abused.
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Scientists who study the Earth System, and the tipping points that could change it, are most deeply concerned about the AMOC ocean circulation (Yale e360). Fred Pearce has reviewed a recent study about the status of many tipping points, reported in CL #1563 on November 27. He has interviewed several of the authors to get further clarification of their concerns. Their biggest worry is ocean circulation, which has weakened about 15% since 1975, heading toward a possible collapse which threatens to trigger other tipping points elsewhere. “The AMOC stands at the center of tipping-point cascades because of its large-scale heat transport…..A slowdown of the AMOC reduces rainfall over the Amazon basin, increasing the probability of crossing a tipping point there…..It could also mess with monsoon systems in Asia and West Africa, triggering drought in the Sahel. And by bringing warm waters into the Southern Ocean, it would further destabilize ice in Antarctica, unleashing an acceleration in global sea level rise.” The lack of certainty about when this might happen does not remove the underlying danger, which they believe is worth taking pains to avoid.
Carl