A new way of accounting for carbon emissions from deforestation raises the total by six times (University of Queensland). “Usually only ‘pulse’ emissions are considered – these are emissions released the instant intact forest is destroyed…..Our analysis considers all impacts such as the effects of selective logging, forgone carbon sequestration, expanding effects on the edges of forests, and species extinction…..By comparing ‘pulse’ and ‘committed emissions’ with what these forests could have removed from the atmosphere if they’d remained intact until 2050, we determined the real impacts of deforestation.”
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–Note: I think the authors should have made some kind of allowance for regrowth on this land before 2050. Their story would be less dramatic, but still meaningful even if the net long-term emissions penalty was merely a double of the immediate carbon release.
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Significant increases in extreme rainfall in the world’s monsoon regions over the past century has been verified. (Chinese Academy of Sciences). “Extreme rainfall over the global monsoon regions deserves specific attention as it is more intense than that on the rest of the land and affects nearly two-thirds of the world’s population…..Employing rigorous statistical tests, they demonstrated that the significant influence of global warming on regional extreme rainfall changes is robust regardless of different time periods of analysis, criteria of selecting stations and datasets used.”
–Note: The global monsoon region is basically located within or near the tropics, where ocean surface waters have warmed enough to furnish the extra evaporation required to feed these rains. I believe lands in higher latitudes probably get less leverage via that kind of effect from nearby waters.
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Another study has found observational evidence that rainfall rates in tropical storms are increased when wind velocity increases (Princeton University). “For three hurricane seasons in a row, storms with record-breaking rainfall have caused catastrophic flooding in the southern United States. A new analysis explains why this trend is likely to continue with global warming: Both the higher moisture content of warmer air and storms’ increasing wind speeds conspire to produce wetter storms.” (This evidence supports older theories that higher wind velocity at the ocean surface, or any other body of water, will increase the rate of evaporation at that surface.)
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A worrisome new report on the decline of insect species and numbers (Technical University of Munich). “Compared to a decade ago, today the number of insect species on many areas has decreased by about one third…..Before our survey it was unclear whether and to what extent forests were affected by the insect decline…..Since 2008 they measured a decrease of approximately 40 percent in insect biomass in the forests they studied. In grasslands the results were even more alarming: at the end of the study period, the insect biomass decreased to only one third of its former level…..A decline on that scale over a period of just 10 years came as a complete surprise to us – it is frightening, but fits the picture presented in a growing number of studies.”
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The world is “woefully unprepared” for disruptions to mountain water supplies due to climate change (Reuters). “Mountain-sourced water supplies, which provide about half of all drinking water worldwide, is becoming more unpredictable as warmer temperatures melt glaciers and change precipitation patterns and river levels…..Our infrastructure was built in the 19th and 20th centuries in the mountains and downstream of the mountains and we don’t have that climate any more.” A conference sponsored by the WMO is engaged in finding solutions, which are urgently needed and likely to be costly. (The discussion is all about adaptation, not prevention. It is too late for prevention.)
Carl