Climate Letter #1536

Surprising growth of lush vegetation in the high Arctic after permafrost is gone (The Siberian Times).  These pictures provide a vivid demonstration of the progress of climate change in the top part of Siberia, only 1000 miles from the North Pole.  This is an area where palm trees once grew, and could conceivably return.  All of that growth does capture large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere, compensating for a possibly good share of the gases released whenever permafrost thaws.

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The IEA predicts rapid acceleration in the growth of rooftop solar installations over the next five years (Renew Economy).  This would constitute  a welcomed resurgence following a recent period of slowdown.  The forecast is based on an accounting of projects now planned or underway and the fact that costs keep coming down—probably by a third in coming years.  The untapped market for rooftop solar will remain enormous far beyond 2024.
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New research casts doubt on worst-case scenarios for sea level rise before 2100 (Massachusetts Institute of Technology).  “The current worst-case scenario of sea-level rise from Antarctica is based on the idea that cliffs higher than 90 meters would fail catastrophically…..We’re saying that scenario, based on cliff failure, is probably not going to play out.”  The new model has taken a closer look at the stability of ice shelves that buttress the cliffs, now seeing their sustainable strength in a more favorable way.  The cliffs would still come down over time, but much more slowly.  (Maybe the new ‘worst-case’ will now drop to three or four feet by 2100 instead of upwards of ten or so?)
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A new study calculates the overall cooling effect of aerosols of the black carbon type (Yale University).  These are particles in the atmosphere that capture sunlight before it reaches the surface, which has a cooling effect below.  The particles then reradiate longwave energy, some of which does reach the surface, and also have a greenhouse effect which returns some of the energy that has come out from the surface.  Both of these processes have a warming effect.  Over the entire globe the net effect leaves a cooling of about 0.47C, about half of which is natural and half due to soot emitted by human activity.  Most of that is due to all the biomass burning for which we are responsible, and should prevent.
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A new technology offers the amazing possibility of recycling every kind of plastic waste, creating economic incentives for waste plastic to be collected instead of discarded (Chalmers University of Technology).  “End-of-life bio-based materials like paper, wood and clothes could also be used as raw material in the chemical process. This would mean we could gradually reduce the proportion of fossil materials in plastic. We could also create net negative emissions, if carbon dioxide is also captured in the process. The vision is to create a sustainable, circular system for carbon-based materials.”  Can this be real?
Carl

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