Climate Letter #1534

“Amazon Watch:  What Happens When the Forest Disappears?” (Yale e360).  Another piece of outstanding journalism by Fred Pearce, bearing on many aspects of the process whereby rainforest is converted to savanna.  One glaring detail:  “Deforestation is dramatically raising local temperatures. The air over the farm is on average 5 degrees Celsius hotter than in the forested reserve over the fence: 34 degrees C, rather than 29 degrees C. The difference rises to a staggering 10 degrees at the end of the dry season…..And the dry season is lengthening.”  As clearly explained, much is at stake here for the entire globe.

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A similar type of crisis is happening on the vegetated regions of Australia (The Guardian).  Native vegetation of all types is rapidly being cleared away for conversion to cropland, in most cases illegally.  The environmental consequences are severe, including adverse changes in the local climate.  This activity, not well-publicized abroad, has greatly accelerated in just the last three years.
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A new study has found a large amount of carbon being released by thawing of permafrost along Arctic coastlines subject to erosion (a Geophysical Research Letter from AGU100).  Existing models usually indicate a much slower rate of future thawing.  “Yet, along the rapidly eroding coastlines of the Arctic Ocean, which make up 34% of the Earth’s coastlines, whole stretches of the coast simply collapse, sink or slide into the ocean; including the previously frozen organic carbon…..Our study indicates that eroding permafrost coasts in the Arctic are potentially a major source of carbon dioxide. With increasing loss of sea‐ice, longer open‐water seasons and exposure of coasts to waves, we highlight the importance of coastal erosion for potential carbon dioxide emissions.”
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A state of the climate report through September of this year (Carbon Brief).  Zeke Hausfather does an expert job putting all the vital information together with the clearest of charting.  Note that El Nino/La Nina (or ENSO) conditions have had no effect this year and are projected to remain neutral well into next year.  On that same basis, look carefully at the chart separating land and ocean temperatures from 1880 to present.  The so-called temperature “hiatus” from 1998 to 2015 can be easily observed on the ocean line but not in the least bit on land.  That is because ocean surfaces were relatively cool during that period due to a prevalence of La Nina conditions under the influence of a different balance in the direction of trade winds over the Pacific.  Those winds have little to no effect on the temperature of land surfaces.  Starting in 2015 El Nino took charge and the ocean surface water, along with the air right above it, got much warmer.  Remember that the global average is always weighted to the tune of 70/30 in favor of ocean air temperature, and also remember that any rise in the surface temperature of the ocean is always likely to be held back because of the various ways that it keeps mixing with cooler water in the layer just below the surface, and so on down to even lower depths.  The oceans store much of the heat they collect (for so many years) while heat collected on land nearly all heads right back out to space—subject in all cases to speed limits imposed by greenhouse gases.
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An interesting story about the several advantages of a whole new design for wind turbines (Aarhus University).
Carl

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