This year’s September low for Arctic sea ice extent was second only to 2012 (Carbon Brief). Two other years, 2007 and 2016, were in a virtual tie for second. Also, “The 13 smallest summer lows on record for Arctic sea ice have all occurred in the last 13 years.” Random weather events such as cyclone activity and air pressure patterns help to determine the final outcome for each year.
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An update on the new climate sensitivity models that are being released (Nature Climate Change). These models predict the upper and lower limits of global temperature change from a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 level, which for four decades have largely been set at 1.5 to 4.5C by the IPCC. The new models are running hotter, as shown in the chart below. So far just 20 have been submitted out of 42 qualified modelling groups. The final result is likely to have a bearing on the publication of carbon budgets that humanity should strive for, making them considerably tighter.
China’s transition to renewable energy is losing momentum (Yale e360). Solar energy installations are expected to drop by about half this year from a peak of 53 gigawatts in 2017. “And while curtailing subsidies for wind and solar power, the central government has sharply increased financial support for what it calls “new energy” extraction, which includes fracking of shale gas and separating methane from coal. Those subsidies are an important reason behind China’s rising CO2 emissions.” The country does have higher goals for cutting emissions but doesn’t seem able to get the desired results.
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An interesting new discovery provides a bit of good news related to the future of the “carbon sink” (Smithsonian). Researchers studying plants growing in marshes found them able to add bulk in the presence of higher CO2 in the air even if they were short of nitrogen. The plants were sending out more roots in order to seek the extra nitrogen they needed, which helps to build up the soil, and other benefits were also realized. No attempt was made to seek comparison with vegetation growing in other types of environment.
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How The Guardian reviewed the new IPCC report on oceans and ice (see yesterday’s Climate Letter). This is a condensed summary that captures the main points. Perhaps the most important point is that everything going on is accelerating at a rate that is surprising to almost the entire climate science community, yet there are many who say it was written in a form that is generally conservative.
Carl