An update on global CO2 readings from Mauna Loa. The lower chart depicts daily readings which are now making the annual transition from seasonal decline to a rising trend. The turning point is always a landmark that helps to establish the current rate of change for this fundamental basis of climate change. For late September the year-over-year difference from 2018 is right around 3ppm, just as it was last May when the downtrend began, indicating a complete lack of progress toward a needed shift in the long-term trend as depicted in the top chart. These charts are interactive. If you unclick the Display check for CO2 in the top chart you get a perfect view of the trend of 12-month cumulative advancement since 1958, absent even a hint of deceleration.
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An important new study shows how the risks of damage from climate change accelerate as temperatures rise (Science). The study was written by an IPCC expert group asked to “assess the impact of recent climate change (1.0°C, 2017) and the likely impact over the next 0.5° to 1.0°C of additional global warming.” Members reviewed all of the available scientific literature on the subject, which is copious, and arrived at answers which have not previously been so clearly assessed. The key finding: “Multiple lines of evidence indicate that the next 0.5°C above today (which will take GMST from 1.0°C to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial period) will involve greater risks per unit temperature than those seen in the last 0.5°C increase. This principle of “accelerating risk” is also likely to drive proportionally and possibly exponentially higher risk levels in the transition from 1.5°C to 2.0°C above the pre-industrial period.” Scientists often talk about how surprised they are by today’s extreme weather events and now they are starting to see how even greater surprises of the wrong kind are likely to unfold in the immediate future as the warming trend continues. The study concludes that making a powerful effort to avoid this outcome would pay off handsomely. I encourage you to read the first few sections of this report, which has not received the media attention it deserves.
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Yesterday’s Climate Action Summit fell short of expectations from major powers (EcoWatch). “China did not increase its commitments under the Paris agreement, India made no pledge to reduce its use of coal and the U.S. did not speak at all.” Beyond that, a number of notable commitments were made, documented in this report.
Measuring and predicting sea level rise both face a range of difficulties (Carbon Brief). Many of the reasons are explained quite well in this report. Sea level is definitely rising, but presently there is not much in the way of confirmation that the rate of rise is accelerating, as many think must happen. There are even parts of the globe, shown on a map, where sea level is actually falling.
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A large part of Ethiopia has been hard hit by drought (Deutsch-Welle). About 30% of the country, known as the Somali Region, has experienced chronic drought since 2016, causing the displacement of close to 350,000 people from pastoral communities. “Our research has strongly suggested that climate change has contributed to this decline [in rainfall…..research has advanced a clear causal explanation linking warming in the Western Pacific to increased rainfall near Indonesia and disruptions in the East African long rains.”
Carl