A new study foresees increased frequency of hotter and drier years in the Upper Nile Basin, causing serious water scarcity (Phys.org). The hot and dry years, now one out of five, which typically result in crop failures, could double or triple by 2080. An expected increase of about 10 percent in average total annual rainfall would not be able to offset the impact of such an increase in frequency of deep drought episodes.
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–In a follow-up report, the authors of the study describe the way life will change for populations all along the Nile and its tributaries. “By 2080, the study estimates that as much as 65 percent of the regional population—250 million people—could face chronic water scarcity during excessively hot and dry years. The Nile Basin is one of several fast-growing, predominantly agricultural regions that are really on the brink of severe water scarcity…..Environmental stresses could easily contribute to migration—and even conflict.”
–There is open access to the study. The Abstract includes this important sentence: “By the late 21st century, the frequency of hot and dry years may rise by a factor of 1.5–3, even if warming is limited to 2 °C.” (my ital.) That could be called a relatively favorable scenario compared to the other possibilities that are often looked at.
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A frank discussion of the growing problem of climate migration from Central America (The Conversation). This was written by a cultural anthropologist who has studied displacement from El Salvador for over twenty years. She knows the facts and she understands the political complications when large numbers are involved. “These trends have led experts at the World Bank to claim that around 2 million people are likely to be displaced from Central America by the year 2050 due to factors related to climate change…..The number of displaced could be even higher – up to almost 4million – if regional development does not shift to more climate-friendly and inclusive models of agriculture.” Their favored pathways are not always friendly.
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Forest productivity and stability are highly dependent on the amount of biodiversity (University of Freiberg). This has now been established by actual tests performed on 22 separate plots in a long-running experiment. “The study concludes that mixtures of two and three tree species have on average a 25 to 30 per cent higher productivity than monocultures, and those with five species even 50 percent higher. The differences during a severe dry period caused by the tropical climate phenomenon El Niño were especially pronounced…..these results indicate that to store the same amount of CO2 in biomass, far less space is needed with mixed-species forests.” It is also a good reason for leaving most old and intact forests untouched.
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How well are renewables doing as replacements for fossil fuel energy? (Inside Climate News). Their growth has been fast, but not nearly fast enough. A new report “estimates that global greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector would have been 15 percent higher in 2018 were it not for the increasing renewable energy capacity. However, it also notes that emissions still rose 10 percent from 2009 to 2019 with the rising global population despite those advancements.” (Plus the effect of greater energy demand per person due to economic growth.)
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How major oil and gas companies think about and plan for the future (The Guardian). According to a new study, “Every oil major is betting heavily against a 1.5C world and investing in projects that are contrary to the Paris goals.” Like any other business, they say they just want to take care of the needs of their customers.
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