Climate Letter #1498

Important new research into the effects of increasing ocean acidification (The Conversation).  Two of the authors of a new study provide a simple explanation of their work, which uncovered a previously unrecognized threat from ocean acidification.  “In our study we discovered increased seawater acidity reduced Antarctic phytoplanktons’ ability to build strong cell walls, making them smaller and less effective at storing carbon. At current rates of seawater acidification,  we could see this effect before the end of the century…..Fewer diatoms sinking to the ocean floor mean significant changes in silicon cycling and carbon burial. In a time when carbon drawn down by our ocean is crucial to helping sustain our atmospheric systems, any loss from this process will exacerbate CO₂ pollution.”  (There are over 100,000 species of diatoms.  Their health is important for many reasons.)

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What scientists know about Amazon fires and their importance to Earth’s climate (Phys.org).  All the fundamentals are clearly laid out in this broad-based explainer.  For example, “Without these CO2 “sinks”, Earth’s surface temperature would already be hotter, and the risk of runaway global warming that much higher…..The health of the planet is at stake. With every hectare lost, we are that much closer to the scary scenario of runaway climate change.”  With regard to carbon sinks, notice how this effect has much in common with that of the altogether different process described in the story above.
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A quick update on the current level of atmospheric CO2.  Right now we are about 3 ppm higher than last year was at the end of August, a very large increase for a 12-month period having no meaningful El Nino effect.  Looking at both the upper and lower charts in this link, it is hard not to notice disturbing signs of possible acceleration.  Removal of natural carbon sinks will by itself have that kind of effect, apart from any additions of carbon directly due to human activity.
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New information has been gathered concerning the release of greenhouse gas from melting permafrost (Phys.org).  For this study, “The experiment showed that permafrost thawing may produce microbially degradable rich organic matter, which, in turn, will cause massive greenhouse emissions and speed up global warming…..It transpired that biodegradable components are present both at great depths and very close to the permafrost surface. According to our projections, the Arctic region will very soon have a marked impact on global warming.”  (That would accelerate the CO2 chart action in just the same way as carbon sink removal, again apart from whatever human activity is doing.)
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How much time do we have to reverse the course of climate change?  This review by Bob Berwyn at Inside Climate News brings everything up to date with great clarity.  He even has a section that highlights the danger of crossing the tipping points that are set in stone by nature—some of which were described earlier in this letter.  (We also noted that CO2 from all sources this year is accelerating, not dropping.)
Carl

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