Climate Letter #1495

The tragic scale of major wildfires all over the world (VOX).  An overview of where and why they exist.  For most it was bad climate, but not so for the Amazon, where the usual summer dry spell is not especially problematic.  The majority of current fires are being set deliberately.

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A closer look at what is happening in the Amazon (Mongabay).  “They cut the trees, leave the wood to dry and later put fire to it, so that the ashes can fertilize the soil…..when the rains come, pasture grass flourishes in the short term from the nutrients left by the ashes…..this year the fires have started earlier. Landowners usually slash and burn their lands about a month before the onset of the rains. But the rains won’t start before late September – later in more northern parts of the Amazon.  It could mean that there is going to be a lot more fire ahead.”  We thus won’t know the true scale of this disaster for at least several more weeks.
–One more look, this time through a number of personal accounts (Newsweek).  This post opens with a 4-minute video featuring the author/journalist David Wallace-Wells, who summarizes his rather bleak expectations for climate impacts in general.  David has spent many hours interviewing prominent scientists with a focus on what their greatest worries may be, making him as well informed as anyone on that particular subject.
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A new study has found that more frequent wildfires in northern forests contribute to climate change in a manner not previously understood (EurekAlert).  The researchers paid special attention to carbon that has been left in the soil, in a well-preserved state, after fires from another era, then finally released during fires of the kind now happening.  As a result, they conclude that forest regions once acting as carbon sinks have now become a net source.
–This related post has additional commentary from the people who did the study showing more detail behind the overall effect.  When forests are burning at a younger age the average amount of carbon that exists above the surface will decline over time and the amount that remains in the soil will no longer be more than enough to offset that loss, but will instead fall short.
–Three professors who are familiar with this work, writing for The Conversation, give us their own version of an explanation for this phenomenon, and tell how it is not limited to North America.  “That’s true not just for North American boreal forests, but also the vast forests in Russia, China, and other sub-arctic regions covered by the sprawling ecosystem.  We’re currently studying boreal forests in little-researched north-eastern China, where worried forest managers are reporting decreased snow cover and burning of an intensity and extent they have not experienced before.”
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A quick reference to the two diagrams shown in yesterday’s Climate Letter.  It looks like sea level rise approaching ten meters was possible at times when the CO2 level was somewhat below 350 ppm.  That should be interpreted as a long-term risk factor once all feedbacks have been accounted for and insolation relative to the South Pole is just right.  As far as “targets” are concerned, and with respect only to sea level, I can’t see anything much above 300 ppm that deserves to be called safe on a long-term basis.  Bringing CO2 back down to that level from where it is today, if it can be done, will surely take longer than the time needed to push it up so far.
Carl

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