What are the prospects for human survivability with 4C warming? (Climate Code Red) The question needs to be answered since that much warming is well within range, potentially by the end of this century. In this post David Spratt pulls together the latest thinking from many sources of a prominent type about how it could happen and the likely consequences. Many helpful links are included. This information has a level of credibility that means it should not be ignored, much as one might want to.
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–Spratt’s story makes heavy reference to another story of the same type that was published in May by The Guardian, as posted in CL #1429 on May 20th. Here it is again:
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IPCC climate projections have a common tendency to overlook numerous “tipping points” that many individual scientists expect will become effective at various future temperature levels. This post appeared in a Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists last October, reposted here for the first time. The lead author was a Nobel Prize winner while V. Ramanathan stands at the peak of a highly distinguished career. “By largely ignoring such feedbacks, the IPCC report fails to adequately warn leaders about the cluster of six similar climate tipping points that could be crossed between today’s temperature and an increase to 1.5 degrees—let alone nearly another dozen tipping points between 1.5 and 2 degrees.” (No mention of those that would come later.)
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One particular kind of climate feedback now has scientists especially worried (National Center for Atmospheric Research). New models based on detailed observations of cloud behavior are raising global temperatures by as much as 5.3C in the event of a doubling of the CO2 level. “The scientists determined that the main problem stemmed from the more detailed way CESM2 handled interactions between aerosols and clouds.” There is still some uncertainty involved in this very complicated relationship, so future adjustments are quite possible.
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A close-up look at the forces behind the migrant caravans arriving at the US border (Living on Earth). A Senior Investigative Reporter for CNN went into their homelands to find the real story. While the situation is complex, he learned that crippling heat and years of drought were the foremost reasons for people choosing to leave their homes.
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Archival footage shows how ocean water temperatures were measured in 1947 (NPR). This is fun to watch. In addition, the story tells about a simple reason for why the recorded data was inaccurate.
Carl