An important story about the potential for changes to carbon sensitivity estimates (Weather Underground). “Our planet’s climate may be more sensitive to increases in greenhouse gas than we realized, according to a new generation of global climate models being used for the next major assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The findings—which run counter to a 40-year consensus—are a troubling sign that future warming and related impacts could be even worse than expected.” The revisions center on new things we have learned about cloud behavior, a critical element governing Earth’s radiation input.
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–Note: Keep in mind that Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity is not achieved until incoming and outgoing radiation are in balance, which will not happen for at least one hundred years. Outgoing radiation is currently delayed mainly by heat absorption in the oceans plus the melting ice effect, and that delay means the air near the surface is not warming up today as much as it will under conditions that are in balance. Those conditions would add nearly one degree to air temperatures near the ocean surface—now 0.8C below air temperatures over land—and that particular change would certainly have a large impact on the production of water vapor, which is the most powerful greenhouse gas of all. Changes in cloud behavior having a potentially positive feedback could also result from the added warming, as noted in the above story.
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Another new study has important information about the potential cooling effect on the Southern Hemisphere’s atmosphere caused by a possible rapid disintegration of Antarctica’s ice sheet (Science Daily). Sea level rise could in turn be reduced as cooler waters below the ocean surface have lessened ability to melt the undersides of coastal sea ice. The main cause of the slowdown involves a massive increase in the number of icebergs that have broken off and are floating far out to sea. (This is not a new idea, but the prospect of it coming to pass is bolstered by this study, which has authorship of the highest level.)
–Note: Reading this report, by coincidence, immediately brings to mind the story in yesterday’s letter about how CO2 lost control over Earth’s climate during the Younger Dryas event that started 13,000 years ago. It seems quite possible that a huge number of icebergs were floating around at that time, with constant replenishment, and perhaps their numbers were high enough to take control over the climate for as long as a thousand years. Once the event ended it did so very quickly, which I believe is consistent with the way iceberg rafting events might regularly conclude. Here is a link to the Figure 4 referred to in that story, with red showing air temperatures, yellow the CO2 level and blue representing changes in the Gulf Stream’s speed, plus dating in 000 BP at the bottom.
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One more new study related to Antarctica’s ice describes reasons for the current acceleration of ice loss (Inside Climate News). “Westerly winds that enable warmer ocean water to creep beneath the floating edge of the ice sheet have become more prevalent over the past 100 years…..the winds are changing because global warming is heating the tropics faster than Antarctica and the surrounding Southern Ocean. Contrasts between temperatures over different parts of the Earth are the main driver of wind.”
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Invasive pests are a threat to 4o% of forest biomass in the US (The Guardian). A study has found that, “About 450 overseas pests that damage or feed on trees have been introduced to US forests due to the growth in international trade and travel.” The spread of these pests already has a devastating impact on forests and the situation is set to worsen, thereby generating significant losses of carbon.
Carl