A disturbing new way to look at future growth in global energy demand (Phys.org). A new study separated demand growth strictly associated with warmer temperatures—mostly for cooling needs—from all other kinds of energy demand. The authors “warn that by 2050, even a modest warming of our climate could increase the world’s energy needs by as much as 25 percent. And if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, we could demand up to 58 percent more energy than would be needed in a stable climate.” Since air-conditioning is often vital to personal survival, that makes the task of replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy all the more complicated, and difficult.
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A field report from scientists who investigate permafrost temperatures in Alaska (WCAI/NPR). The group leader, Sue Natali, “says she’s never seen anything like it in her years of Arctic research, and warns it is a sign of abrupt and accelerating climate change…..It’s accelerating and the past couple years have been particularly bad.” On a global scale, Dr. Natali thinks the thawing of permafrost could release carbon to the atmosphere, by the end of the century, in an amount on par with the current emissions rate from the United States. The way to control it is by reducing temperatures, which in fact are currently rising at an accelerated rate in the very regions where permafrost is found—the far north. (This is a good reason for viewing climate change as a genuine crisis.)
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How Ernest Moniz would tackle the problem of climate change in the United States (Axios). The former Energy Secretary under President Obama is a very practical sort of scientist who has knows what political reality is all about and has given this subject a great deal of thought. This post carries his basic views, as expressed in an exclusive interview. They are most likely disappointing to anyone who sees the need for extreme urgency because so much depends on getting cooperation through compromise with the currently most obstinate stumbling block, big business. He thinks that sector can be softened enough to put a carbon tax in place, one that would be modest in size, structured in such a way that no one would be badly hurt, and possibly not terribly effective. That is not an easy thing to get done just right, but would be a great accomplishment because once it is in place it could be quickly and easily moved to higher levels on short notice. That would happen if the public were to suddenly come to the realization, perhaps in a state of panic, that the rapid elimination of fossil fuels was a task that simply had to be done—comparable to the public mindset toward winning the war after Pearl Harbor, with no conceivable alternative. We’re not yet at that point, but when the moment comes, and it probably will, having a viable carbon tax already in place would be extremely useful.
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An update on Greenland’s current melting season (CNN). Right now the island is in the clutches of a heatwave, the same one that smashed records in Europe last week. This year’s melting season got off to an early start, and now scientists are saying the final results by the end of summer could rival those of 2012, which set records by a wide margin.
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A perspective on this year’s Arctic wildfires (CBC News). Overall, 2019 appears to be unprecedented in terms of numbers of and emissions from Arctic wildfires. Canada is having an average year and Alaska above average but not its worst, leaving Siberia as the outlier, in really deep trouble from all recent reports.
Carl