A new paper explains why there were numerous megadroughts in the American Southwest between the 9th and 15th centuries, and why they could recur (Phys.org). The scientists are confident about the causes they found but are less sure about the future. “Nevertheless, the researchers conclude that human-driven climate change is stacking the deck towards more megadroughts in the future…..Climate change is setting the stage for an increased possibility of megadroughts in the future through greater aridity.”
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The warming trend in effect today is much different from warming trends of the past (Phys.org). A study has made systematic comparisons of all trends over the past 2000 years. There are three principal conclusions: “What we didn’t know until now is that not only average global temperatures in the 20th century are higher than ever before in at least 2,000 years, but also that a warming period is now affecting the whole planet at the same time for the first time. And the speed of global warming has never been as high as it is today.”
–More insights into this important study, written for The Conversation by one of the scientists involved in the project:
–A feature story from Carbon Brief has still more to say about the project and its importance, with some helpful graphics:
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Global temperatures during the first half of the nineteenth century were significantly cooled by five major volcanic eruptions (EurekAlert). A new study points out a number of unusual effects that were involved. From the lead author, “Frequent volcanic eruptions caused an actual gear shift in the global climate system…..Given the large climatic changes seen in the early 19th century, it is difficult to define a pre-industrial climate…..1850 to 1900 is certainly a good choice but compared to the first half of the 19th century, when it was significantly cooler due to frequent volcanic eruptions, the temperature increase is already around 1.2 degrees.” (That may be true, and it is a good thing to know, but then CO2 cannot be held responsible for every bit of the higher total amount of increase.)
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Democrats still lack an effective plan for tackling climate change (New Republic). This story highlights a new effort to scale back the Green New Deal proposal in favor of something much more moderate with respect to goals. The author is highly critical, also deploring the absence of having a legislative roadmap in place for meeting any kind of goal. I think that “playing it safe” with public opinion is not a bad idea at this stage of the campaign, when just getting Donald Trump out of office is by itself a worthwhile goal, maybe the most important of all, for addressing climate change. The party needs to do no more than pledge to return to the Paris accord and then cooperate with all the other nations that have a positive approach toward action. The lack of US participation and leadership has clearly been a setback for getting anything accomplished globally. Restoration is a tangible goal that a solid majority of the public should be happy to see, and totally immune from criticism.
Carl