Better farming practices can cause a significant reduction in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration (Phys.org). A new study shows how the result of certain possible changes should actually reduce the average global temperature by 0.21C by the end of this century. Farming produces high levels of methane and nitrous oxide relative to CO2. These gases are easier to control than CO2, and the short life of methane in the atmosphere would enable an actual reduction of its concentration—without any need for negative emissions apparatus. (Methane has a much more powerful greenhouse gas effect than CO2, per molecule, largely due to the effect of having far lower concentration. There are other large sources of methane that could and should be quickly reduced for the same reason, like the excessive amount of leakage from natural gas production and distribution.)
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A new hazard to human lives has been identified as average temperatures rise toward 2C and above (Phys.org). Tropical cyclones are generally followed by an increase in heat and humidity in the surrounding area, areas which are by nature hot and humid to begin with. While that increase is not especially great at this time, models are showing that it would ramp up sharply with future temperature increases. “Through their analysis, the researchers concluded that if temperatures were sustained at 2°C above pre-industrial levels for 30 years, the number of people affected by this hazard would rise to over 2 million. For the 1.5°C warming, the figure is 1.2 million and it reaches almost 12 million if the earth’s climate were to warm to 4°C above pre-industrial temperatures (and under this scenario, the researchers expect the hazard to be an annual occurrence).”
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Global temperature historical data have been updated by NOAA (EOS). There are some changes in the new version but they are almost undetectable on the chart. This story gets into some of the details of how the measurement work is handled and how it is constantly being improved in places of difficulty. In that respect, “The most notable improvement currently in progress addresses the incomplete coverage in the Arctic, where evidence of climate change is greatest; the lack of full coverage has been shown to underestimate the global warming rate.”
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A new study looks at the future of regions around the globe that experience monsoon-type rainy seasons (EurekAlert). These regions, which sustain two-thirds of the world’s population, are characterized by a combination of abundant rainfall and a distinct contrast between wet and dry seasons. While not all such regions are alike, the overall expectation is that wet seasons will get wetter and dry seasons drier. “We should be aware of and prepared for the potential additional flood and drought risks in the populous monsoon regions.” The potential effect on soil water is equally disturbing: “The surface soil water would deplete all year round as a result of atmospheric warming. This could reduce crop yields and further threaten food security for the dense populations.”
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Meanwhile, India seems to get a little of everything, all at one time (Inside Climate News). There has been a substantial increase in the regional variation of rainfall across the country during this monsoon season. “We will see many more heavy rainfall events … while other places will undergo prolonged dry spells, even if the total stays roughly the same, said Pai, highlighting the record rains in Mumbai last month even as Chennai in the south experienced its worst drought in decades.”
Carl