As a short followup from yesterday’s letter, let me ask this question: If all carbon emissions from human activity were to stop today, and no meaningful way to remove CO2 from the atmosphere or provide artificial cooling could be installed, what would happen to global air temperatures over the next 100 or 200 years? Everything I have read indicates that a rise to 2C (from the current 1.1C over pre-industrial) could not be prevented, and something more than that, all the way up to 3C, would not be surprising. If you were to browse through all the Climate Letters for the last two or three years you would find any number of arguments leading to that conclusion, arguments that in my mind have a great deal of credibility. You would also find arguments that an increase in sea level of around 15 feet is virtually unstoppable within 200 years and that number could also go higher, to as much as 75 feet, within 1000 years. All of that, and more, if the CO2 level is not substantially reduced from where it is today. If we let the level go higher than where it is the future timing standards would not be extended, the lower level target we must find ways to drop to would not change, and the projected adversities to soon be suffered could only increase. Having a “carbon budget” available to draw from is a nice convenience that may help to ease public anxieties for a few years but will not change the underlying reality, nor will it promote the strongest possible efforts to obtain relief.
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New research projects deficiencies in the availability of key nutrients because of climate change (EurekAlert). An international team has published its findings in a prestigious journal. “The study represents the most comprehensive synthesis of the impacts of elevated CO2 and climate change on the availability of nutrients in the global food supply to date.”
–On the other hand, miracles do happen from time to time—here is an example of a miraculous kind of maize that needs no fertilizer and grows to almost 20 feet, discovered in Mexico (Yale e360).
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Latest information on the flooding and landslide situation in Bangladesh, putting more than four million people at risk of food insecurity and disease (ReliefWeb). More than 66,000 homes have been destroyed.
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The Mediterranean region, particularly Spain, is at high risk of desertification (Anadolu Agency). “The Mediterranean region is highly sensitive because it is at an interface between a tropical region in Africa and a temperate region in Europe. It’s very easy to shift between southern air and northern air origins, so even a small change can have a very big effect.” Several studies and commentaries are covered in this report.
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Something must be done about aircraft contrails (Yale e360). Fred Pearce provides a detailed analysis of this sticky problem that adds as much or more to global warming than the CO2 emissions from aircraft, although in quite a different manner. Contrails form cirrus clouds that can last for days. “But understanding of the role of contrail cirrus clouds to climate is growing. Though sometimes too thin to spot easily from the ground, these will-o-the-wisps are the biggest component of the warming from contrails…..when contrails are around, they raise night-time temperatures sufficiently to reduce the day-night differences by 3 degrees C.” Much more of interest here.
Carl