The declining trend of EROI (Energy Return on Investment.) This report is based on the concept of how much energy is required to find, produce and deliver the energy that is finally used to advantage. For fossil fuels the trend is such that it keeps taking more and more, which means the return on energy invested to gain energy keeps declining. The economic implications are huge. Here is a quote from the main study of this subject, published in 2011: “The remarkably high EROI for finding oil and gas in early years contributed to significant increases in GDP and probably had a great deal to do with a tremendous increase in wealth in the first part of the 20th century, as well as to the development of systems based on inexpensive and abundant petroleum. Its steep decline is equally remarkable.” This means yes, we can be thankful for all that fossil fuels have done in the past to raise our standard of living, but, as the saying goes, what have you done for us lately? This is why we should not worry too much about the economic impact, which will include many job losses, of seeing these fuels displaced by other sources of energy.
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Here is the link to the 2011 study, where everything is spelled out and charted:
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An example of a “positive” (or reinforcing) tipping point. Here is a case where raising the temperature of the air has been found to enhance the emissions of methane from certain locations of natural storage. There are many other situations much like it, few of which are considered in most climate models. This is a typical example of the reason why so many scientists are fearful of the unseen risks of allowing further temperature increases, and would like to see a reduction in the popular 2C limit.
Here is one more example that leads to the same concern, based on a recent study of how permafrost melting can accelerate naturally and release extra amounts of carbon.
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Electric cars are becoming much more affordable. Cheaper batteries are the key, because they now make up a quarter to half the price of the car. That cost is dropping by about 8% per year as new techologies and scaled-up production economies kick in. For an ongoing advantage, the cost to “fuel up” for an EV is less than four cents per mile, comparing quite favorably with that of gasoline.
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Progress in flywheel energy storage technology. We hear little about this very clean type of “battery,” but things are happening that show promise for a constructive role in the future of efficient storage.
Carl