An analysis from BP of the world’s high growth of energy demand in 2018 (The Guardian). “BP’s annual global energy report revealed for the first time that fluctuating temperatures are increasing the world’s use of fossil fuels in spite of efforts to tackle the climate crisis…..Carbon emissions climbed by 2% last year, faster than any year since 2011, because the demand for energy easily outstripped the rapid rollout of renewable energy…..the growth in renewables would need to have climbed by more than twice the rate achieved over the past three years to offset the impact of burning coal for electricity.” BP advocates scrubbing CO2 emissions from the flues of power plants that burn fossil fuels—with the help of government funding.
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Natural gas is now the main driver of fossil fuel emissions (Axios). Its replacement of coal in electric power plants has gotten much attention, but there is more to the story. “But it’s industrial uses for natural gas, such as chemicals and fertilizers, that are the biggest drivers of growth in most areas of the world, per the IEA report. These uses can’t be as easily replaced with renewables like electricity can.” The IEA projects worldwide demand for gas will rise more than 10% over the next 5 years.
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Healthcare accounts for a high percentage of global energy demand from industry (Carbon Brief). “The research found that the combined emissions from hospitals, health services and the medical supply chain across the OECD group of market-based economies, as well as China and India, make up around 4% of the global total. This is a larger share than either aviation or shipping.” Moreover, the rapid growth in healthcare demand is significantly boosted by many effects associated with climate change. The study “identifies a variety of improvements that could be made to health services that would also benefit public health.”
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Why Cry for the Cryosphere? This post features an interview with an expert the author of a new book, Vanishing Ice, which answers the question in ‘encyclopedic’ detail. The coming problem of emissions due to thawing of permafrost gets attention, and the fact that CO2 already present in the atmosphere will remain there, “where it will linger for centuries to millennia. This commits us to more melting of ice and higher sea levels.”
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-cryosphere.html
Increases of deadly levels of heat and humidity are predicted for many city dwellers in Africa (Climate News Network). Scientists have taken a count the number of days individual persons will be at extreme risk times the populations expected to have maximum exposure, which is exaggerated in large cities. “In the best case, 20 billion person-days will be affected by 2030, compared with 4.2bn in 2010 – a jump, in other words, of 376%…..This figure climbs to 45bn in 2060 (up 971%) and reaches 86bn in 2090 (up 1947%)…..And that is the best-case scenario. When the researchers factored in the steepest population increases, the most rapid growth of the cities and the worst disturbances in climate, the figures rose more sharply. By 2030, 26 billion, a fivefold increase, could be at risk, 95bn in 2060 and 217 bn in 2090. This is an increase of 4967%, or nearly 50-fold.”
–The heat wave in North India brought temperatures to 48C (118F) in Delhi, the highest ever recorded in that location for the month of June (NDTV).
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Note: The images associated with Climate Letter #1442 were mysteriously lost in transmission at some point. They have been fully restored.
Carl