Something different today. With all the talk about the CO2 level being up more than 3 ppm at its seasonal peak (May) in Mauna Loa, while reaching its highest point in the history of our species, (
https://www.ecowatch.com/noaa-carbon-dioxide-levels-2638714201.html) I want to offer a slightly different perspective on how to digest the news.
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It’s a fact that the gas is very evenly distributed throughout the atmosphere, but not perfectly so, and that is because of large variations in the timing and location of all the different emissions and uptake processes around the world. The result at any one moment in time depends on where you do the measuring, and just where the gases come from via the long-distance transport of prevailing winds, or changes of such, that reach the point of measurement. Mauna Loa is not necessarily the best place in the world for accuracy in measuring short-term trends because there is a bias in the way it collects winds, mostly from directions up and down the coastline of North and Central America, but not always.
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There is really just one spot on the planet that has practically no bias at all in either seasonality or wind direction, and that is the South Pole. Luckily there is a weather station located at the South Pole, operated by NOAA, having all the standard equipment for making accurate measurements. Here is a picture of what this station has recorded over the past ten years:
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Now compare that with a similar set of measurements from Mauna Loa, using the same method of collection by means of flask sampling. Notice the totally different monthly timing of seasonal peaks and valleys, and also the deep difference in gradients between them:
For an even more extreme gradient effect resulting from seasonality take a look at Barrow, Alaska, also operated by NOAA. Other stations across the Far North display big swings much like those of Barrow. Generally, seasonality is more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere than in the South because of the much greater extent of land masses where plants are growing and decaying over the course of each year.
Finally, let’s have a view from American Samoa, which is located out in the Pacific like Mauna Loa, and about the same distance from the Equator, except South. In this case seasonality is not very strong, yet not nearly as weak as at the South Pole.
So what do all of these charts have in common? In each case the rising trendline is almost perfectly linear, in spite of a few wiggles and that little bit of extra bulge in 2016 because of El Nino. The total increase in concentration for ten years is almost exactly the same, 23 ppm. Until there is hard evidence to the contrary, or until all the dust has settled, that means 2.3 ppm is still the current annual rate of increase. There is most certainly no evidence of a decline, which was supposed to emerge from the Paris Agreement and is thus disappointing, nor should we see reason to panic over a runaway to the upside.
Carl
