Potential spike in temperatures foreseen. That is the opinion of Kevin Trenberth, a highly respected and generally conservative climatologist. His argument centers around observed movement of an index that measures the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is displayed on a chart in this post. (How the index is constructed is not explained here, but it has a large following.) With the help of an expected El Nino event this year Trenberth foresees an abrupt spike of about 0.2 to 0.3C about to get started, thus overcoming what has seemed like an extended pause in the main trend.
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Climate science: A discussion of climate sensitivity. This is an excellent review of an important subject. If you are not familiar with the concepts here is your chance to get off to a good start learning. For those familiar this will be a great refresher while bringing you up to date on what various scientists are arguing. It is also pertinent to recent discussions about how the trend of deep ocean warming influences climate cycles. Be sure to watch the 6-minute video called “Water Vapor Feedback.” Some personal comments will follow.
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/04/climate-sensitivity-is-unlikely-to-be-less-than-2c-say-scientists/?
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/04/climate-sensitivity-is-unlikely-to-be-less-than-2c-say-scientists/?
Extra comment: I think both the article and video do not give adequate weight to the influence of reflective aerosols, which are a factor when the CO2 growth is due to the burning of fossil fuels, but otherwise unlikely. There are good arguments that without the aerosol cooling effect our current temperature average would be up by an extra 0.6C or so. Also, not enough is said about the fact that, historically, whenever temperatures go up for any reason, so do natural releases of methane into the atmosphere, which is enough, in the present situation which has extra amounts added by humans, to add a good 40-50% to the warming effect of CO2 alone. As for water vapor, I see it as amplifying the net total of any of the other sources of warming or cooling by a factor of around two times. The idea that doubling CO2 all by itself, with nothing else changed, would add 1.2C to temperature is a well-established calculation that one should always remember.
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What about those nasty tipping points? Many tipping point feedbacks are normally not included in climate sensitivity calculations because of all the guesswork they involve. That does not mean they can safely be ignored, as the author of this post reminds us. (Every insurance salesman would agree.)
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Walter Cronkite discusses prospects for global warming. He and some others had it right 35 years ago.
Carl