Fifth consecutive day of CO2 readings well above 415 ppm.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html What this means is that the peak in the annual seasonal curve, now about one week away, is unlikely to be less than 415, placing it more than three parts above the peak of one year ago. Each of these peaks, by my interpretation, can be found by clicking on Interactive Plots, lower chart, then drawing an imaginary center line through the trail of daily readings that go back two years. After rising steadily for eight months that line always stalls out and makes a sharp reversal in late May, ready for an accelerated four-month downtrend.
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Human activity these days can directly account for about two ppm of annual CO2 increase, doing so in a fairly consistent way. When a number higher than that shows up at the peak the extra gases that have been established in the atmosphere have to be accounted for in some other manner, generally implying causes of a natural sort. A major El Nino is known for its high natural CO2 input, but the El Nino of the past twelve months was far below the ‘major’ threshold. Another possible candidate would be in the form of a reduction in the ‘carbon sink’ that normally offsets around half of the extra emissions that humans are adding. Scientists have found reasons to worry about the permanence of that high amount of offset, a possibility that must now come under close scrutiny. Once there is a decline in the sink, what are the chances of a comeback? There are also worries about increases in CO2 emissions from soils where Arctic permafrost is seen to be thawing, and other suspects of that type.
The main point of concern about all this is that, in our effort to bring about reductions in emissions from burning fossil fuels and other human activities, which are not advancing too well, there is not a bit of room for accommodation of more inputs produced by Nature itself on a regular basis. Many of those inputs would in fact be due to feedbacks caused by the warming from human activity, which means Nature should not be blamed for using up whatever is left of our so-called carbon budget.
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A new study has much to say about the constructive role of plants as a carbon sink (Science Daily). This story ties in with the above comments, explaining the origin of an important part of the carbon sink and how it could decline. “Their modelling and analysis revealed that, since the beginning of the industrial era, photosynthesis has increased in nearly constant proportion to the rise in atmospheric CO2…..While increased CO2 has allowed an increase in photosynthesis and global leaf area, the researchers warn that further climate change — with increasing frequency of events such as heat waves, droughts and storms — has the potential to significantly stress terrestrial vegetation and decrease production.” Maybe that is what we are seeing today?
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A report from Tuvalu, an island home to 11,000 persons, now sinking (The Guardian). Time is running short, and nobody wants to leave. A sad but beautiful story with many illustrations.
–Another group of remote tropical islands has a different type of problem, the dimensions of which are truly unbelievable:
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A growing number of US voters have made climate change a top concern in making decisions about who to vote for (Reuters). A new poll places the total at 38%, dominated by Democrats. Pressure is growing on Democratic primary candidates to state positions on solutions that would have real potency in a critical situation, which few have done so far, and will be interesting to watch.
–Here is what a common Republican solution will probably look like in 2020. It will appeal to many voters because it is pain-free and assumes there are no time limits to worry about.
Carl