Climate Letter #370

The relationship between global carbon emissions and economic growth. This review is extremely well-written because it digs deeply into a number of practical and philosophical issues involving many aspects of growth. No matter where you stand it will give you a lot to think about.

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Comment: It is hard to escape the idea that we are now at a point where a sufficiently rapid decline in emissions, in order to avoid catastophically excessive warming, may depend to a large extent on the rate of decline that is actually realyzed in worldwide economic growth. If that is so, is it best to have that happen, or is continued growth more important?
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An early example of the greenhouse gas effect. This happened 200 million years ago, when there was a rapid rise in CO2 emissions and temperatures not unlike those of today, though in a warmer world to start with. “The rapid rises in CO2 would have triggered changes in ocean circulation, acidification and deoxygenation.” The consequences were not pretty. Read on.
http://phys.org/news/2015-04-oxygen-depleted-toxic-oceans-key-role.html
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Cost of sea level rise for the U.S. projected. From a detailed coastline analysis, this study sees 3.4 million persons being displaced by 2100 from a 3-foot rise or 11.7 million from six feet. Estimated costs, for either protection or relocation, will be high. Despite the predictive uncertainties, this is a subject that must soon be addressed by the most vulnerable cities and counties.
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Current status of global sea level rise. This post has a good chart of the trend since 1993. Right now there is a sharp upward spike, which could be nothing more than the result of normal fluctuations between land and ocean water, and thus temporary. This is all explained quite well, including El Nino effects. The main trendline reading of 3.2mm increases per year has not changed, but there is a growing belief that before long it will bend upward.

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A summary of global renewables investment in 2014, said to be a “paradigm shift.” China was by far the leader, the U.S. second, Japan third. The average cost of solar power projects has fallen 59% since 2009.
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Here is a bit more on what has been happening to the weather in Chile, with two short videos. Amazing.
Carl

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