An expert analysis of the trend of CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels (Carbon Brief). This is a very clear and well-charted explanation of what is going on, with emphasis on the one country (China) that has been most responsible for the growth since 1980, when it was beginning to industrialize. What China actually did last year has not been confirmed and its next move is not predictable. As for the global picture, the “all others” category of nations has already begun to dominate the trend but without getting much in the way of analysis apart from totals. This group of more than 160 countries emits over 41% of the 37 billion ton total and is growing faster than any single large nation, including India, or the EU as a whole. The EU can be praised for the example it has set in cutting emissions since 1980.
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A major new study has been published about the rising devastation caused by “ocean heatwaves.” This post from Phys.org has a definition of the term and review of the main findings. “By definition, marine heatwaves last at least five days. Sea water temperatures for a given location are ‘extremely high’—the top 5-to-10 percent on record for that time and place.” The consequences described are grave, and future prospects are far from reassuring: “Even if humanity does manage to cap global warming at ‘well below’ 2C (3.6 F), as called for in the Paris climate treaty, marine heatwaves will sharply increase in frequency, intensity and duration, earlier research has shown.”
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-ocean-heatwaves-devastate-wildlife-worse.html
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-ocean-heatwaves-devastate-wildlife-worse.html
—The Guardian has a story about the study which includes further insights and commentaries plus two of its charts that should be seen to appreciate how great the changes have been in just the last couple of decades.
–You can also take a look at the full study at this link, which among other things shows how much collective effort has gone into the making of this report:
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Again thanks to The Guardian, we get a story having more specific details about the effects of marine heatwaves in the waters around Australia and New Zealand. Note how certain undesirable species, like jellyfish, always seem to move in and thrive once the regulars are gone.
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The Guardian also has a separate story about a different recently published study having a closely related topic dealing with the mechanics of ocean heat uptake. (See the lead story in CL #1335, January 8th.) It serves as a useful reminder of how great is the amount of heat being added to ocean water and then remaining there, while circulating from place to place among the basins. Eventually there will be a point of saturation, but there is still a long way to go because the oceans are so very large and the deepest waters so very cold, just a degree or two above freezing. Once saturation has been reached much of the ocean’s life will be gone and all of the energy still being collected at the surface from above will simply be returned to the atmosphere, like it does today from land, gaining extra warmth as a result. Meanwhile, the existing circulation patterns in the oceans are likely to suffer changes due to the warming, adding further to the upset of ecosystems along with other unwanted effects as they do so.
Carl