Climate Letter #1369

Advanced climate models offer a new explanation for what caused the dramatic spike in Earth’s temperature,  known as the PETM, 56 million years ago (Quanta magazine).  There is abundant evidence that an already-hot planet gained at least another 6C within a very brief period of time, but the cause has never been clear.  Simulations show that a tipping point is reached when highly warmed air forces the low-lying stratocumulus cloud layer to break up, allowing a sudden rush of new heating, and thus water vapor, from sunlight that is no longer being reflected away.  Several well-known scientists have made favorable comments on the research, but would like to see it replicated by others.

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–Here is a link to the Abstract, which concludes with a warning, “Such transitions to a much warmer climate may also occur in the future if CO2 levels continue to rise.”
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A reduction in oxygen levels is stressing marine ecosystems (Scientific American).  The average loss is two percent globally, much higher in some locations.  “Ocean animals large and small, however, respond to even slight changes in oxygen by seeking refuge in higher oxygen zones or by adjusting behavior.”  Warmer water is the main cause of the loss, for two separate reasons.
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“Is the insect apocalypse really upon us?” (The Atlantic magazine)  There have been a number of articles to that effect lately in prominent journals.  This one tells why a more balanced discussion may be justified, but it is still recognized as a very bad situation.  “Doing something is hard, though, because insect declines have so many factors, and most studies struggle to tease them apart. In their review, Sánchez-Bayo and Wyckhuys point the finger at habitat loss above all else, followed by pesticides and other pollutants, introduced species, and climate change, in that order.”
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A close look at how China produces electricity (Renew Economy).  While slowly losing market share, coal burning still dominates at 65% of total production.  The problem is that total production is still rapidly growing, up 21% in just the last three years, and that keeps the coal numbers moving higher as well.  The story also has an explanation for what is at the base of the rapid economic growth, building construction.  “China’s housing starts, over 15 million dwellings per year, its commercial building and associated infrastructure are less well understood. If they were, the world would understand that’s where large quantities of the steel, cement, aluminium and other basic materials ends up.”  CO2 emissions are sure to keep growing as long as this growth spree continues.
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In the US, big oil wants to modernize to stay competitive, and is getting plenty of help from Silicon Valley (Gizmodo).  All of the latest digital automation tools are being deployed, and they will “enable drilling rigs to run on automated schedules, enhance communication between oilfield equipment, and help machinery assess when it is in need of repair or modification—all in the name of making drilling for oil smarter, cheaper, and more efficient.”  The author sees this as a setback for alternative energy development, and wonders about the contradictions and moral implications of what appears to be an overly warm embrace.  (Stockholders in the form of institutional investment managers may yet have the final say in this matter, aimed at the managers in both types of industries.)
Carl

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