An investment manager gives his views about the future of oil demand (Bloomberg). The rate of increase, now slow but steady, will begin to fall in about two years but not become negative until after 2035. He does not see much probability for higher prices great enough to reduce demand, which will suffer mostly from the rise in popularity of electric vehicles and greater energy efficiency.
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British Petroleum has issued its annual forecast, which sees growth in renewable energy being relatively rapid by historical standards (The Guardian). Its forecast for oil demand is similar to the one in the above story, with allowance for an even greater decline if trade disputes continue between the US and China.
–Comment: If the more ambitious targets for emission reductions are to be met the demand for oil would need to plummet at a rate far beyond what is stated in these forecasts, with the same being true for both coal and natural gas. The forecasts, which assume a continuation of population growth and overall economic growth, can be accepted as reasonably accurate in the absence of some form of highly disruptive intervention. Such interventions, one being a massive carbon tax, can be talked about but no conventional forecasters seem ready to give them real weight at this moment in time.
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Oil and gas production in the US is booming, and thus likely to add an extra measure to global carbon emissions (Axios). The three principal effects from this present development are the faster replacement of older nuclear power plants in the US with cheap natural gas, more methane escaping from producing wells, and a lowering of global oil prices that would stimulate extra demand. The last of these by itself could add as much as 3% to global CO2 emissions.
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An interview with a professor of glaciology with top-tier credentials (Carbon Brief). This person is probably as well-informed as anyone about the very latest thinking of climate scientists on a number of subjects, with proper emphasis on existing uncertainties. The format used by Carbon Brief is great, starting out with capsulized opinions followed by expanded discussions, which offer plenty of meat for anyone interested.
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California has 149 million dead trees that are ready to burn (Vox). “Normal background levels of tree mortality for California, what we would typically see through both insects and diseases, is well less than a million trees per year.” This story shows how the numbers have increased in recent year, with 18 million dead trees added in 2018, and what it all means for the future.
Carl