A new study draws some conclusions about the ‘rapid intensification’ kind of hurricanes (Yale e360). They are happening more frequently—largely due to climate change—and are especially dangerous for several reasons. As noted, “the five most destructive Atlantic storms of the past two years all went through rapid intensification, including Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, Florence, and Michael.”
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The world’s driest desert has been flooding (Bloomberg). This has happened to Chile’s Atacama desert on the northern Pacific coast. In southern Chile forest fires have consumed some of the world’s wettest woodlands. Further, this nation’s capital city has set record high temperatures three times in three years, and is also drying out.
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There is a severe worldwide decline in insect populations (The Guardian). Many local and regional studies have observed such declines in recent years, and now for the first time a global survey has consolidated those that are most meaningful into one general review. “The rate of extinction is eight times faster than that of mammals, birds and reptiles. The total mass of insects is falling by a precipitous 2.5% a year, according to the best data available, suggesting they could vanish within a century.” A number of reasons for this are listed and rated, with climate change having one of the lesser roles. A major change in agricultural practices is of vital importance to both insect populations and the climate.
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The demand for oil is rising, and big oil is preparing to satisfy that demand (The Economist). Those are simple facts of life, regardless of what else you hear going on. “No firm embodies this strategy better than ExxonMobil,….As our briefing explains, it plans to pump 25% more oil and gas in 2025 than in 2017…..All of the majors, not just ExxonMobil, are expected to expand their output.” This is not the fault of the oil companies, nor are they doing something illegal. The solution lies in curbing demand, something that free markets seem not inclined to accomplish on their own. The restrictive forces that could be applied, at least in theory, have been reluctant to do so. This fine essay explores the available options.
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Current scientific models do a good job of calculating changes in ocean heat content (Yale Climate Connections). Dana Nuccitelli has put together a good chart depicting what an average of the best models indicates compared with several sources of the best available observational data, starting in 1955. Data collection has greatly improved in the last few decades leading to a more regular trend along with being more accurate. The chart shows a steadily increased trend since 1995 in the total amount of heat collected, and also a remarkably consistent quantity of terajoules added each year. The latter means the energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere—from energy out being less than energy in—has in fact not been changing much from year to year. About 93% of the total imbalance is being stored away in the oceans while the rest is stored on land or in the atmosphere, or used up by on-balance melting of ice. The last paragraph of the story also adds a good point related to thermal inertia.
Carl