More maps today. I want to create a record of an uncommon situation in the Antarctic region. where the map below is showing an anomaly of +3.5C for the day. The said “region” on these maps includes every bit of the continent, the entire Antarctic circle, and a bit more, out to the latitude of 65S. The continental land surface alone must have an anomaly of at least +4C, maybe closer to +5:
Next we’ll see how this looks on the temperature map. While it is still summer down south, none of this land is actually above the freezing mark, and close to half, meaning everything enclosed by bright magenta shading, is still colder than -30C, down to -40, in spite of the warm anomaly! That’s Antarctica.
I have some ideas about where all the extra heat is coming from, and it certainly cannot be an effect of extra sunshine. In fact this part of the globe, all the way out to around latitude 40S, sees very little sunshine anywhere these days, but rather a whole lot of heavy clouding and precipitation:
Having so much precipitation is evidence that a large number of well-stocked atmospheric rivers (ARs) must be active in this part of the world. We can always find their images on the precipitable water (PW) map, since this is precisely the kind of material they are made of:
While we are here, if you get a good close view of the screen, you’ll see a large shape of very dark shading that occupies much of the continental center. That area all has PW total weight values of less than 1kg per square meter. Notice how this shape coincides almost perfectly with the shape enclosed by bright magenta in the temperature map, where everything is colder than -30C. Moving out from there, you will see that whenever PW values go up, according to the shading on the map, so do temperatures—suggesting a connection between the two. Is it possible that PW embodies a true greenhouse energy effect—perhaps strong enough to explain why surface temperatures have gained so much warmth? Does not each double in PW value appear to add about 10C to its associated surface temperature? If not, is there a better explanation?
I’m satisfied that greenhouse energy produced by the PW content of AR remnants that have spread over parts of the continent is indeed causing the anomaly that we first noted. We still want to know why and how the anomaly has grown so large at this time. Something must be going on that is different from normal, and I hope to find clues on the map that shows high altitude air pressure configuration:
The “blue zone” on this map, which is usually more compact and regular in shape all year long in the Antarctic, is now showing signs of disruption in two places, especially the long and wide rift on the top side. This is sure to cause much irregularity in the isobar pathways that govern the movement of jetstream winds. The indicated pathways are made to order as a means of penetration by jets that follow the light blue fringe line into the innermost depths of the polar zone. You can see on the next map that this is indeed happening. Penetrating streams of this type bring with them the scattered remains of ARs that have been set loose during previous encounters with circling jets. The high-altitude activity of both kinds of streams becomes scrambled by convergence in the broad territory that approaches the polar zone.
Carl