An improved understanding of the way surface water flows and overturns in the Atlantic (Carbon Brief). There is new research that adds significant findings that alter the usual picture of how and where the system operates. The currents, which have a huge influence on weather conditions across Europe, are subject to important variables, which in turn are influenced by climate change. This post is not very helpful toward drawing big conclusions about the future, but it does create a clear picture of what is going on and sets up the best terminology for describing it.
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–Here is a link to the press release about the new research, which was a substantial undertaking that took five years and considerable expense just to complete the first phase. That fact should highlight its importance.
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Another reason for why there is such intense interest in studying the Thwaites Glacier (see yesterday’s Climate Letter). Scientists working for the US Department of Energy recently published a paper discussing the results of a computerized model that has all the latest technology that can describe the dynamic mechanisms at play around the underwater grounding line beneath the glacial front. The experiment found a point where small changes in melting would lead to instabilities that would be irreversible for centuries. “This positive feedback for the Marine Ice Sheet Instability mechanism means that details concerning how the ocean forces ice sheets across the threshold for instability will be critical for determining long-term rates of sea level rise.” With ten feet of sea level rise at stake, this explains the rush to obtain an abundance of hard data.
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-near-term-ocean-antarctica-affects-long-term.html?
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-near-term-ocean-antarctica-affects-long-term.html?
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A new discovery points to an increased rate of carbon emissions from the melting of permafrost. Credible experiments show a secondary release that involves the strengthened greenery growing on melted soils “As the Arctic warms, more plants are growing in these ecosystems, doing their part to remove some carbon from the atmosphere by incorporating it into their biomass…..But Pegoraro’s findings suggest that plants may also contribute to some soil carbon loss by releasing glucose from their roots into soil…..We need to consider priming effects to fully understand permafrost carbon dynamics…Otherwise we could underestimate how much carbon is being lost to the atmosphere.” https://phys.org/news/2019-02-grad-student-adding-fresh-carbon.html
–Note: The lead author of the study was a promising grad student. There were eleven other scientists involved in the work, several of whom are well-known veterans of permafrost research with many past publications of their own. Link to the Abstract:
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What caused the peak cooling of The Little Ice Age in the early 16th century? A team of four scientists have published a report arguing that much of it was due to the devastation of native populations in North America after 1492 from the spreading of European diseases for which they had no immunity. Large areas of cleared land was therefore abandoned, followed by a regrowth of forests that pulled large quantities of CO2 from the air. Here is a description of their thesis, written for The Conversation:
–Their full study, which is quite lengthy, is available at this link:
Carl