Climate Letter #2108

Results of a major study covering the interaction between rising CO2 levels and tropical rain forest productivity have been published.  The study was conducted over a period of 21 years, with a good many significant variables taken into account.  The main objective was to learn more about the potential loss of tropical biomass due to temperature increases and whether or not the steady rise in CO2 levels was beneficial to its overall rate of growth.  Evidence was collected establishing a new level of accuracy for answering both of these questions.  The study was published by AGU, the journal of the American Geophysical Union.  The best explanation of its purpose, conduct and results are provided by a science writer for Eos, a public relations outlet for the AGU, at this link:  https://eos.org/research-spotlights/drop-in-rain-forest-productivity-could-speed-future-climate-change.

In summary, “The new research provides further evidence that as nighttime temperatures continue rising and as more daytime hours exceed the optimum temperature for photosynthesis, productivity will decline. The authors warn that tropical forests could soon enter into a positive feedback loop that accelerates both global warming and tropical forest decline. As forests become less productive because of rising temperatures, they will soak up less carbon dioxide, which in turn will lead to more warming. This cycle could pose a major threat to the survival of these highly biodiverse ecosystems.” 

The study itself has open access and is clearly expressed, at this link: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021JG006557.  Quoting from the Abstract, “Together these findings raise the prospect of declining tropical-forest productivity as global warming intensifies. This would in turn speed up the rate of increase of CO2 in our atmosphere, a positive feedback to warming.”  In the Discussion we read, “These findings from a high-fertility tropical rainforest are reason to strenuously question model projections of sustained productivity increases for tropical forests…..our findings argue for refining the climatic metrics used in the global models.”

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Information like this is valuable except for its lack of any hard data that would be applicable on a broader scale. Timing is also an issue that is not well resolved. About all that climate models can do to “refine the climatic metrics” of this knowledge in its current state is to eliminate any assumptions of a contrary nature that are now being incorporated as faulty estimates. These are possibly not very large compared with potentially real but unknowable consequences over time. Similarly, the IPCC can do very little with the information other than to issue a general warning that its carbon budget aimed at maintaining the 1.5C target possibly needs to be tightened up, but can’t say how much. I have seen a number of other studies from time to time that fall into this same category. They may or may not be followed up with further research of similar quality that can add viable new metrics to the search for proper conclusions.

Carl

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