The theory of sulfate aerosol cooling, which I have recently been writing about, is one that I find very persuasive. It involves a mechanism that is critical to the process, but it is almost impossible to understand why things should be that way. The mechanism is a sort of surprise discovery, based on diligent research which found that these aerosols interact with clouds in a way that causes a brightening of the cloud-top surfaces. The amount of brightening is considerable, large enough to deflect a significant amount of sunlight that would otherwise be passing through the cloud and sending more energy to the surface, along with its warming effect. This is considered a fact, having been demonstrated well enough to overcome just about every avenue of dispute. It leads to an assumption, which has also been demonstrated, that when these aerosol concentrations are diminished the cloud tops become less bright and more sunlight passes through, raising temperatures below.
Some sulfate aerosols are produced naturally, most importantly by volcano eruptions. Major eruptions cause major cooling effects, which typically decline at the same rate as the associated aerosols and are gone within a year or two. Today’s sulfate aerosols are produced every day in high concentrations, due to the burning of coal and oil, and every day there is a corresponding fallout The amount of fallout each day must inevitably be in balance with the amount that has been added over a certain number of days preceding, as determined by the natural lifetime and daily rate of decline by fallout, which is very short. It could take three days for a daily batch or it could take ten days, which doesn’t really matter. Every day there is a fairly consistent new load of additional aerosols emitted, more or less replacing whatever fell out that day.
The aerosols that are currently in the atmosphere produce a certain amount of cooling effect, which is unknown for certain but can be roughly approximated. Let’s call it one degree, on a globe-wide average (regions would be either more or less), for illustration purposes. This means if we stopped burning all coal and oil today we could expect the average to rise by one full degree within just a few days. If we stopped all burning over a more extended period, like thirty years, all else being equal or accounted for, one degree of total warming would still be added, but only in small increments. Whatever else would have an effect on temperatures over those thirty years must be accounted for separately, and certainly in an open and plausible way, but I can’t see any way for those other things to alter the direct effects of aerosol decline—with one possible exception. What if these other factors are able to cause a change in the amount of cloud cover in regions where the aerosols are active? Let’s think about that. Any difference would leave those aerosols with either a greater or lesser cloud population to interact with before they fall out, and there should be consequences.
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Arguments are being made that tend to minimize the effect of aerosol reduction on surface temperatures. One example can be found in this explainer from Carbon Brief: https://www.carbonbrief.org/cutting-air-pollution-would-not-cause-near-term-spike-in-global-warming. I have questions about the validity herein, left for you to decide. There are other arguments that I have found links to and will post later.
Carl