A new study provides strong support for James Hansen’s predictions related to the global temperature effects from aerosols created by sulfur dioxide emissions due to the burning of coal and oil. Hansen’s views are summarized in his July Temperature Update, available at this link: http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/July2021.pdf, which you may be familiar with from previous reviews in these letters. Hansen provides a strong challenge to the conventional view that temperature increases can be held to 1.5C and possibly to 2.0C as well. In short, the cooling effect created by sulfur-based aerosols is very strong, and the aerosols are currently are currently undergoing a process of being erased. Part of the erasure is due to clean-air programs that are underway and have had considerable success, which Hansen believes will continue. Further erasure will go hand-in-hand with actual declines in the burning of coal and oil, which are a fundamental necessity recognized in every plan to halt and reverse the growth of CO2 emissions.
The new study was written by scientists affiliated with the Chinese Academy of Science and published by an international journal based in China, which will most likely slow the usual processes of review and reaction in the Western world. The only review now available was written by a spokesman for the Chinese Academy and published online in a normal way by the familiar Phys.org outlet: https://phys.org/news/2022-01-significant-roles-anthropogenic-aerosols-surface.html. The reviewer covers quite a bit of extra information contained in the study related to deep ocean effects caused by the decline in aerosols, which I think is still in need of further explanation for a proper understanding.
The study itself has a firewall, except that we are given the opportunity to read the first page in full, and this is where things get interesting—https://www.sciencedirect.com/sdfe/pdf/download/eid/1-s2.0-S2095927321006915/first-page-pdf. I encourage you to pay careful attention to the details provided in the final paragraph on this page. The main conclusion is drawn from models that have CO2 emissions being reduced through 2050 at a rate consistent with the RCP2.6 scenario, which is the most favorable onutcome that we can hope to achieve. The CO2 level in the atmosphere will still be growing, but with a small reduction in the annual warming effect. A corresponding reduction of the annual sulfate aerosol cooling effect will effectively add more warming, with this result: “In RCP2.6, the increased CO2 and decreased aerosols shall generate consistent warming effects and cause a large increase in global mean surface temperature before 2050 (0.031 °C a-1;)” I believe this last bit of notation is properly interpreted as an average of 0.031C per year, which would add up to about 0.9C by 2050. The final peak for the combination of temperature gains from these sources would not be reached until around 2060, at a level that would be enough to realize the 2.0C target with a bit left over.
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Carl