Scientists say we should get used to polar vortex outbreaks. It is linked to a phenomenon known as “sudden stratospheric warming” (SSW), which has a splitting effect on the vortex and is growing more frequent. “That warmth splits the polar vortex, leaving the pieces to wander…..Where the polar vortex goes, so goes the cold air…..The unusual cold could stick around another eight weeks…..And it’s happening more frequently in the last couple decades.”
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Jennifer Francis, writing for a popular Australian website, explains the workings of the wandering vortex in considerable detail. She attributes the event more to changes in the jet stream than to the SSW described above, but leaves room for a relationship. “Splits in the stratospheric polar vortex do happen naturally, but should we expect to see them more often thanks to climate change and rapid Arctic warming? It is possible that these cold intrusions could become a more regular winter story. This is a hot research topic and is by no means settled, but a handful of studies offer compelling evidence that the stratospheric polar vortex is changing, and that this trend can explain bouts of unusually cold winter weather.”
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-frigid-polar-vortex-blasts-global.html
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-frigid-polar-vortex-blasts-global.html
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New research quantifies the relationship between warmer ocean surfaces and extreme storm-and-rainfall events. “They found that extreme storms…formed when the sea surface temperature was higher than about 28 degrees Celsius. They also found that, based on the data, 21 percent more storms form for every 1 degree Celsius that ocean surface temperatures rise.” Most surface water across the tropics is already at or above 28C, and future increases up to 3C are actively considered within range.
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-seas-frequency-extreme-storms.html
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-seas-frequency-extreme-storms.html
–Comment: Sea surface water temperatures are currently rising at a rate somewhat less than the rate commonly reported for average global air temperatures, which is composed of both land and ocean surface air temperatures. They will eventually rise more rapidly as deep ocean waters grow warmer, which will still take some time.
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“Food shocks”—sudden disruptions of food production—are becoming more common because of extreme weather and conflicts. A new study has pinpointed the number of such events, their type, and their location by type over the past half-century, all of which has been charted and mapped for easy reference. “In recent decades, we have become increasingly familiar with images in the media of disasters such as drought and famine around the world. Our study confirms that… shocks have become more frequent, posing a growing danger to global food production.”
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A super-high carbon tax, with equally divided dividends, is seen as a plausible approach to achievement of extreme and urgent carbon emission reduction targets (The Hill). It’s something that the two political parties in the US could agree on if public demand for action grew loud enough. Wealthy people would end up being taxed much more heavily than those in low-income classes because in fact they consume far more energy, and the dividend feature would bring the highest net benefit to those with the lowest incomes who naturally consume the least. Thus, when viewed as a means of income redistribution, a goal which is now being considered primarily by Democrats, a stiff carbon tax has many implicit advantages not shared by other methods. It’s like killing two birds with one stone, and well-rated for effectiveness on both counts.
Carl