I may be the only person on the face of our Earth who strongly believes that every bit of precipitable water (PW) in the atmosphere has a fairly uniform and very powerful greenhouse energy effect on surface temperatures. I don’t believe the material makeup of the PW makes a difference in the effect, nor can its power be diminished by distribution, which is highly irregular and constantly changing. In recent letters, especially yesterday, I’ve presented evidence showing the absolute lack of interest in such an idea on the part of a whole generation of meteorological scientists and researchers at the top of their profession. By extrapolation, this would hardly be the case if top professionals in the more broadly-based climate sciences were to express any real signs of interest—and I’ve never personally witnessed even a hint of a suggestion that such ideas might be lurking somewhere. How about outsiders, like scientists in other fields, or amateur science students of all stripes, including the best of journalists and writers of books, or just anybody? Nothing. I’m it, and I won’t be here much longer. (Today is my 91st birthday.) Someone else will have to take over this lonely task, which carries with it a bit of drudgery, just to keep it alive and perhaps to see if it can be publicized more effectively, but I will need to give that person some plausible reasons for doing so.
Right now you can see why I am so interested in the output of atmospheric river (AR) researchers, after belatedly discovering its existence. It makes a real impression, with or without any admission of greenhouse energy. The methodology used and the conclusions supported by this research all make good sense. We are given ample reasons for believing that quantities of PW in the high altitudes will be increasing at ever-faster rates as tropical ocean surfaces grow warmer. From my viewing point these increases will surely enhance PW’s greenhouse effects by a magnitude no less than that of their enhancement of precipitation effects, since both have the very same material source. The completely separate nature of these dual effects, and their ultimate distribution, can still remain independent of each other, just as they are today. My interest, as usual, will always be focused on the greenhouse effects, which are the more obscure of the two. We can easily see how precipitation impacts are already increasing in dramatic ways—here is a news report of one more example, the “bomb cyclone” effect—https://climatecrocks.com/2021/10/28/clone-cyclones-bombing-east-and-west/—and are almost sure to continue strengthening. Temperature effects, while less dramatic (think of ice slowly melting), could be just as troublesome if not more so.
When water vapor arising from surface evaporation is being elevated high enough to enter the upper-level wind system, meaning the one where jetstream winds occur, it quickly encounters a new set of forces exhibiting extraordinary powers. The streams of vapor that arrive (and can hereafter be thought of as PW) can only keep moving as influenced by these winds, mostly from east to west, with the addition of a pronounced poleward bias ascribed to coriolis forces. (AR research confirms both points.) Only limited amounts of this PW is ever allowed to move very far past the mid-latitudes (also confirmed). Whatever poleward progress is actually accomplished by any quantity of PW will tend to naturally amplify the greenhouse powers of that quantity since it will be physically superimposed atop lower altitude quantities that are usually smaller in volume and are constantly being further reduced in volume because of the normally cooler temperatures found closer to either pole. No such gradient affects the PW content at altitudes high overhead, thereby establishing a leveraging effect for any quantities that are moving poleward.
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Carl