I was not intending to write about water vapor today, but then had a few thoughts that made me change my mind. This will take us back to the extensive research I did over the past year related to the greenhouse energy effect of precipitable water (PW.). One of the main conclusions, drawn from graphic evidence provided by correlating the images in Today’s Weather Maps (https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2), revealed the extraordinary amount of surface heating at a given location produced by an increase in current volume (in kw/m2) of PW in the atmosphere overhead when compared with the estimated average volume of PW for that day of year at that location spread out over a suitable baseline period. The numbers that kept coming up repeatedly at any location on any given day (today is no different) told me that any there was a measured double in the usual PW weight the measured temperature would show an increase of about 10C above the usual average for that same day.
This is a surprisingly large number. What is equally surprising about the process of observation is that PW volumes are actually able to double very quickly over a location on the spur of the moment, like just two or three days, but they in fact do so quite often. In more extreme cases they can double twice over, meaning four times normal, and on rare occasions even a third time (8X) in events lasting only a few days. Two doubles meant that temperatures at the surface, measured by local thermometers over all 24 hours of the day, rose by a full 20C (36F) above the historical average for the day. We are all familiar with days like that but have never been told that greenhouse energy being generated by overhead PW was the reason for the increase. One more feature characterizing my observations was the lack of any delay in the timing of heat buildup. When highly concentrated PW appeared overhead the surface air appeared to begin heating within no more than two or three hours, by means of image correlation. And when the PW departed so did the heat. You can find countless examples of these events, fully illustrated, in previous letters.
Lately I’ve been giving more serious attention to the question of where the heat comes from whenever a greenhouse effect is in progress. That’s not hard to figure out when the increase works out to be a small fraction of one degree on a short-term basis. Real energy comes off the surface, rises up in the air, is trapped by an array of GHG molecules sitting all through the air, which respond by sending around half the total amount of released energy back to the surface, effectively reheating it. The movement all happens at the speed of light, which is unvarying for photons. With ordinary GHG molecules also increasing in abundance by 1/2% or so over a year, we can easily picture all sorts of things happening to surface heat that will become manifest as climate change. But how are we to think about PW, which can apparently increase in volume over some spots by 100% or 200% in just days, and at the same time apparently throw off prodigious amounts of heat the way magicians do when they pull a rabbit out of a hat? It makes no sense. I can see why climate scientists are unwilling to waste their time pursuing investigation of such an absurdity.
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Carl