Carl’s theory, based entirely on consideration of the greenhouse energy effects of precipitable water water (PW), is broken down into three parts. The first part is focused on evidence that the effect is always proportional to the amount of PW in the overhead atmosphere of any geographical location at any one time. The amount is expressed in terms of the total weight of all the H2O molecules that are present in the atmosphere at that time, as opposed to the number of parts per million, or parts per billion, etc., which is regularly applied to well-mixed greenhouse gases. H2O molecules, all of which have very brief airborne lives, are not the least bit well-mixed throughout the atmosphere. They cover a range of values, by weight, that run from just 15-20 grams in the polar zones during the dead of winter to as much as 80 kilograms in the tropical belt—the complete opposite of “well-mixed.” Moreover, since H2O molecules do a considerable amount of moving around, their total overhead weight is almost constantly changing. The rate of change, and the amount of change in grams of total weight per unit of time, and the percentage of change in weight, are all subject to much variation. These variations all differ from place to place, and from time to time, and the differences are sometimes extraordinary. Whenever they occur, so will the greenhouse energy effect that is always proportional to existing overhead total weight be subjected to the same measure of variation. Temperatures on the surface directly below will soon feel the effect. They also experience alternative effects from other sources, but otherwise they have no way to avoid the PW effect.
Part 1 goes on to explain that we have incredible technology that is capable of measuring total PW molecular weights over every surface location with remarkable accuracy, and are doing so. Rounded-off numbers are mapped out and published daily, with access open to the public. Part 1 also maintains that we have the capability of making comparisons of how changes in PW weight over time at any one location may affect surface temperatures at that location—after adjustments are made for other effects—over the same period of time. This is not being done, anywhere, with one exception. The one person who makes the effort uses methods that are not of the highest quality but keeps coming up with the same conclusion, that any doubling of PW weight, from any starting point of weight, and up until locations are being examined inside the borders of the tropical belt, results in a temperature increase of approximately 10C in the air above any piece of land or ice-covered surface that does not absorb energy the way water does. Part 1 of the theory also claims that this result is not significantly altered by differences in the physical composition of the the PW measurement, knowing that PW is composed from a wide mixture of H2O molecules in various states. Nearly pure water vapor, that in large part has not begun to condense, is commonly observed and measured in isolation.
Carl’s theory, as stated above without venturing into further parts, can rather easily be tested for verification. The only method of testing that I can think of would have to apply the same procedure that I have used, by matching many local anomalies of PW values and surface temperatures over the same period of time, but could do so with far lower room for error. There are three main considerations. One of these would be satisfied by establishing actual baseline averages for PW values comparable to those now used in determining temperature anomalies. I suspect that there is data in storage somewhere that could be assembled into results having much greater accuracy than the rough estimates I have had to rely on. This would make it the easiest task to accomplish.
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The third consideration is directed toward the claim that pure water vapor and a comparable weight of any mixture of other PW components express approximately the same greenhouse energy effect. We know exactly what the totals are, but have little capability for separating and measuring each of the main components. The final answer probably cannot be established until after we have better knowledge of the actual temperature gaps that need to be filled by the current PW values.
Carl