Today will be mostly images, with a focus on the warm and dry conditions plaguing the western half of the US. One mus wonder about what is causing it, and where much-needed relief will come from. Here is how the situation looks from an anomaly standpoint, much of which is at a level of 4 to 5C above the averages of just 30 years ago.
The skies are almost totally clear (except for smoke and the rainy season is probably over. That leaves perfect conditions for more drought and for multiple wildfires to break out
The Precipitable Water (PW) map is interesting because at first glance the PW values appear to be quite low for the most part, but that is deceptive. I think every bit of these values would be above the average from 30 years ago if we had a map that contained such information, either directly or as calculated anomalies. One must always remember that when elevation goes up, regular PW readings go down—often a lot. Today, for example, we are looking at readings of about 20 kg in the plains areas and only around 7 to 8 in the high parts of the Rockies. Both of these areas, plus everything in between, could be up by about the same percentage, I think around 50% or so, from where they were 30 years ago. That means they would all end up with the very same temperature anomaly, which is what we are getting. I wish we had the missing information, to see if my “hunch” about old PW values is correct.
Here is what the elevation picture looks like. (The Sea Ice / Snow Cover map is usually a good one to turn to for that purpose.)
You may be wondering about where the 50% increase in PW is coming from. Here is where my story takes a turn that is kind of unsettling to think about. This new image of streaming PW shows a massive and very wide stream coming off the center of the Pacific Ocean, moving east to west as usual, headed straight for the US west. Fortunately, the strongest part of the stream is not making it all the way to the coast, but it’s coming pretty close.
This image of Sea Surface Temperature tells us the water out in the center of the Pacific is plenty warm enough as a source of evaporation to send some of the vapor in concentrated streams all the way to the upper atmosphere. The abrupt decline in water temperature toward the east means much less PW will be in the air above, but the part that has moved high up will not be affected, and its contents will keep moving east.
One more image, and this is the scariest one, showing the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly today v. the average from 35 years ago. I’m reading close to three degrees over a rally huge area, The low half of that long streak accounts for today’s surface temperatures being as high as they are for evaporation purposes. The main anomaly stretches a long way to the east, where the waters are still on the cool side, like they are on the northern part. What will this warming trend be doing over the next 35 years? What will it mean for the US west if it continues to grow warmer?
Carl